On Tenterhooks

Six days have now passed since the official deadline set by Varney and co., and I must admit the quality and quantity of rumours emanating from the Valley has been rather disappointing. One might have hoped that the residents of Harvey Gardens would have had their cameras poised to bring us definitive evidence regarding the candidates. Then again perhaps the interviews themselves are taking place in some shady service station on the M25; or maybe Bill Curbishley's hospitality extends beyond the FA.

Indeed other than the ongoing and highly worrying Peter Taylor rumours, there has been very little to grab hold of and the usually efficient Betfair market has been strangely quiet. Having said that, Bolton coach Sammy Lee has mysteriously appeared as 3rd favourite, although the limited amount of money staked hardly suggests his house is for sale and Mrs Lee has borrowed the 'Rough Guide to London' from the library.

Call me old-fashioned when it comes to assessing Peter Taylor's credentials, but in a highly-paid role like football management, I'm inclined to think that if you've already decimated one medium-sized Premiership club, you should be denied a second opportunity. His apologists may argue that the Leicester board was to blame for his mysterious purchases, but to do so would relegate the role of manager to mere puppet status which his salary would hardly have suggested.

I trust that yesterday's confirmation that Glenn Roeder will take on the manager's role on a permanent basis at Newcastle doesn't suggest that boards across the country are taking collective leave of their senses. Given that bad things tend to happen in threes, what price Taylor to Charlton and Venables to 'Boro? Then again, we've also had McLaren to England so maybe we'll be spared at 'Boro's expense.

I read a book a couple of years ago called Fooled by Randomness which changed my life. I suspect Freddy Shepherd hasn't read it. It examines the way that people tend to mistake luck for skill, and to more importantly to make poor decisions as a result. Is it any wonder that those clubs that remain loyal to their manager reap the benefits when the likes of Glenn Roeder are suddenly feted as managerial geniuses when their longer track record suggests anything but (not to mention his lack of qualifications)? So long as the richer competition act in this irrational fashion, Charlton will continue to be able to punch above its weight (provided our own board are not doomed to their own Taylor-induced bout of ill logic).

Most importantly perhaps, putting aside Freddie Shepherd et al's cognitive biases for a second, Roeder, and for that matter Peter Taylor, just sound a bit thick. It's possible I'm afflicted by my own bias here, but it's never been one that's let me down in the past.