Saturday, May 17, 2008

Low Interest Rates

My interest in football has hit an all-time low. Charlton's soporific season hardly helped, but I increasingly find myself totally disinterested in even the supposed high-profile matches.

I may drag myself to the pub for the FA Cup Final (fully a twenty yard walk), but I have a completely non-essential work commitment next Wednesday afternoon that I have unilaterally chosen not to cancel. It only took me a few seconds to realise that I couldn't care less who won the Champions League, and the chances of the game being a classic were negligible given that Chelsea were involved.

The media tried to lull us into believing that the 2007/08 Premiership campaign was one of the most exciting for many years. From my perspective however, it would only have been moderately interesting if the purist's favourites Arsenal had stayed in touch. The likes of Wayne Rooney or Ashley Cole are amongst the most repulsive people in the public domain, so what difference did it make to me which one was celebrating last Sunday?

During the past six seasons, only Everton (4th in 2004/5) and Newcastle (3rd in 2002/3) have dared to break into the top four. The relegation battle is inevitably more exciting meanwhile (read into that what you like), but once again the old adage about needing more than 40 points for safety was proved wrong yet again. In the past ten seasons, only West Ham (2002/3) and Bolton (1997/98) have gone down with a '4' in front of their name.

I can't be bothered to prove it, but I firmly believe English football is effectively insolvent. Its liabilities (contracted wages, debt etc..) exceeds its assets (stadia in crappy neighbourhoods, players it can only sell to other insolvent clubs etc..). The charade is explained on the same basis that the credit bubble was, until the world suddenly changed midway through last year. There'll always be a greater fool to buy the club from the present owners, until there isn't.

So not surprisingly perhaps (in light of my infrequent posts recently), I'll be taking a break from blogging for a while. Euro 2008 will be a showcase of the continent's finest talents, so naturally England will not be involved. News from The Valley meanwhile may be worthy of comment from time to time, but I've better things to do than prove how I knew Osei Sankofa wasn't good enough all along.

I'll write something when I feel suitably inspired (I'm tempted to hack into the club's email server for an end-of-season wrap-up for example), whilst I'll find the time to talk about my fascintating trip to the Gulf in due course. In the meantime, this is probably not the site to visit for 'instant updates' (the likes of Wyn Grant, Doctor Kish, and Dave Peeps perform this admirable task far better than I can).

Thanks for reading this season; I'll be back. Links to my most popular posts of the last few months are listed to the right.

Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Season Review

Back in August, after we had taken apart Sheffield Wednesday at The Valley in a stunning 2nd half display, I urged readers to put on a serious bet that Charlton would win the title.This is thus an appropriate opportunity to express my apologies for such a premature outburst of unbridled optimism.

The final table suggests we were only two wins away from the play-offs, and any frustrated Charlton fan can reel off the ones that got away, without even needing to consider those away from the Valley (Colchester, QPR, Preston, etc..).

However we were also only four defeats away from a Leicester-esque relegation with 52 points, and we were no strangers during the season to late goals, including one at the Walkers Stadium that ultimately condemned the Foxes.

Where did it go wrong? Injuries were certainly a factor, often occurring at highly inopportune times. Todorov for example was outstanding during that Wednesday game, but was crippled shortly thereafter. Bougherra was similarly sidelined just as he appeared to be forming an excellent partnership with McCarthy, whilst who knows what effect Andy Reid's injury had on the club's decision to accept Sunderland's offer?

Pards was forced to build essentially a brand new team, understandably preferring younger players with potential to more experienced types. Certainly his preseason challenge compared unfavourably to say Gary Johnson at Bristol City, or even Ady Boothroyd at Watford. Then again, when one reviews the fabulous job Neil Warnock did after arriving at a shambolic Crystal Palace, perhaps it wasn't such a great excuse after all.

Unfortunately Pards never found the right balance, offering 30 different players a starting berth, with Jonjo Shelvey the last, yet ironically perhaps the most exciting. It was inevitable that Holland and Zheng were voted 1st and 2nd in the Player of the Year, because they were the only outfield players seemingly assured a starting berth if fit. Meanwhile, Chris Iwelumo appeared in every game (14 times from the bench), and he was never remotely close to be being a striker of promotion quality.

The disappointing final League position I can accept, but occasionally our season smacked of experimentation. Yet when an experiment seemed to be yielding interesting results, it was soon replaced with a new one. As one example from many, Luke Varney and Izale McLeod showed signs of forming an unlikely, but exciting partnership up front most notably during the 4-1 win over Blackpool (our then highest-scoring fixture). Three games later, McLeod was forgotten about and now the rest unfortunately for him, is history.

Although increasingly the squad comprised his own signings, he clearly lacked confidence in many of them (was Varney really signed to be a winger for example?). He has pleaded guilty to overutilising the loan market, but here I am less critical since each one of the six concerned was (on paper at least) a valuable addition to the squad. The fact that they did not improve results does not imply Pards was wrong to go down this route. Hindsight is always 20/20. It should instead be seen as an understandable (albeit ultimately fruitless) attempted short-term solution.

However where I would be critical of Pards, is in the sheer number of first eleven permutations he dabbled with. I'm not necessarily against the concept of Benitez-esque rotation, so long as the players are technically drilled enough to cope. Ours patently are not. Some players were given the benefit of the doubt for weeks on end (eg. Ambrose, Iwelumo, Halford), whilst others were seemingly dropped instantly for daring to make a mistake, or play poorly just once.

Naturally therefore, if Pards was not sure what his best team was, then it was inevitable that he might over-react to short-term negative results as he did on several occasions. If he was only changing the personnel (but stuck to a consistent system) then this may have worked out, but increasingly he seemed to do both. No wonder we looked so disjointed at times.

The goalkeeper and his defence always sets the foundations for a successful side, and this fact did not bode well for us, Weaver generally aside. Three defensive loan signings (Mills, Sodje and Halford) made 57 starts, whilst the talented but very raw Moutaouakil and Youga made just 18 between them. Ben Thatcher ended up securing the left-back berth in the end, despite being unwilling to cross the halfway line for a series of matches we needed to win. Paddy McCarthy meanwhile emerged as our best defender, yet he was overlooked for nearly half a season.

Our enigmatic French-speaking pair of full-backs (their own injuries aside) sum up for me our problems this season; it was as if Pards likes to 'talk the talk' when it comes to exciting young talents, but is afraid to truly 'walk the walk' as soon as their understandable propensity to overindulge takes hold. I hope we see much more of both next season, but I'm not convinced they'll stick around.

The midfield was a familiar story of no creativity. Once Reid had left, Holland and Zheng secured the central berths but they needed genuine invention outside of them in order to ensure adequate forward service. Ambrose is a round peg in a square hole played out wide, whilst our true wingers (especially Thomas and Sam) were selected only sporadically, and usually not together. Maybe Varney meanwhile could have been a productive winger, but again he was never given the run of games there to prove it.

Playing 4-5-1 seemed at times to offer the panacea to all of the above, freeing up one of Reid, Ambrose or Zheng to play in the 'hole', but like many of Pardew's experiments, he seemed to lose courage after just a single poor result using the system.

Up front, we obviously lacked a prolific striker, and Charlton fans hardly need reminding that Kevin Lisbie (free transfer) managed just four fewer league goals than Iwelumo, Varney, McLeod and Gray combined (total cost: £4.6m). Some will however have taken comfort from the final game promise of a Gray/Varney partnership; they certainly appear to have the requisite balance and complimentary styles required. With the likes of Chris Dickson and perhaps a rejuvenated McLeod available from the bench, goalscoring productivity should increase. And let's not forget the mercurial Todorov of course.

So there we have it. Perhaps the most disappointing season (relative to reasonable expectations) since 1990/91, when a similarly relegated Charlton side stumbled to 16th place. But that very season serves as a vital reminder that we could easily lose perspective; we played our home games that season at Selhurst Park in front of pitiful crowds. The crowds today are larger, but also considerably more expectant, but that's the price of progress I suppose.

Looking to next season, the full composition of the Championship will not be known for some weeks, but it's fair to assume based on past evidence alone, that 2007/08 was perhaps an 'outlier' in terms of the low number of points required for either promotion or play-offs. WBA were deserving champions in the end, but they only won half their matches. Unfortunately for Charlton, that probably means the improvement required next season will be considerably greater than we might realise.

Seeking to examine the source of such improvement is pointless right now, with the summer wheeling and dealing likely to be as frantic as last time around (albeit hopefully a little more focused this time). However if the existing solid core of 8-9 experienced pros, can be blended alone with the growing group of younger players with scope to improve, there are enough reasons to be cautiously optimistic (or at least not irrationally pessimistic).

As Pards implied, this season has been a very conspicuous blot on his otherwise impressive CV, and I suspect his ego is too large to let it spread much further. 16/1 for the title anyone?

Saturday, April 26, 2008

Pardew's Press Conference Guide

A good friend of mine is a Barnsley fan, and he stumbled across this amazing piece of paper whilst walking back from Oakwell. Now I'm desperate to find versions 1 and 2:



ALAN PARDEW
POST-MATCH PRESS CONFERENCE SPEAKER NOTES
VERSION 3: DEFEAT

"Obviously I'm very disappointed with the result, but I'm pleased with the effort shown/some of the stuff we played/the way we kept on going* (*delete as appropriate)"

"It was always going to be hard today because (insert opponent's name) are fighting for their lives/in terrific form/a big strong side* (*delete as appropriate)"

[IF HOME GAME] "I thought the home fans today were a little bit subdued/obviously frustrated/needing a lift* (*delete as appropriate) and it affected the players."

[IF AWAY GAME] "The Charlton fans were terrific right from the off."

"It was a blow losing (insert recently injured player's name) during the week, and whilst (insert name of player who replaced injured player) came in and did a job, it affected the balance of the side."

"I don't mean to keep going on about injuries, but I do feel we have really missed the guile/strength/pace* (*delete as appropriate) of Todorov/Thatcher/McLeod* (*delete as appropriate)."

"If Ambrose/Varney/Iwelumo* (*delete as appropriate) had tucked away that early chance, it could have been very different but we've been done by another defensive howler/long-range effort/refereeing decision* (*delete as appropriate)"

"The referee/wind/injury/pitch* (*delete as appropriate) has done us no favours today, and it really threw our gameplan out the window."

"I thought (insert name of debutant) was our best player today, and he'll be a big influence for us next season/one day/in the future* (*delete as appropriate) but he's still got a lot to learn."

"There are clearly areas of the team that need improvement in the January window/the summer/training* (*delete as appropriate), and that's what I'll be working towards."

"We'll learn our lessons from this defeat and bounce back in time for next Tuesday/next Saturday/next season* (*delete as appropriate)."

Wednesday, April 23, 2008

Tickety Boo


Back in November 2006, I wrote a rather verbose piece about how Charlton ought to copy the likes of Starbucks, and introduce a little more guile into its ticket pricing policy.

The general thesis was that particularly on a match-by-match basis (and to a lesser degree for seasons tickets too), the club's generally flat pricing structure whilst admirably simple, was infact rather illogical.

In short, the club was missing out on the chance for its less price sensitive supporters to signal their willingness to pay more, whilst potentially alienating its more price sensitive fans from attending at all. Appropriately structured, it was also missing out on the chance to increase revenues too, for any given attendance.

I wrote that piece as someone who considers themselves extremely price sensitive when it comes to certain material goods (clothes, electronics, watches etc..), but unashamedly price insensitive when it comes to certain services (air travel, hotels, event tickets etc..).

Not surprisingly therefore given my devotion to Charlton, I'd gladly pay considerably more than say £15 per game for the best seats in the ground. It was illogical of the club not to free me of some more of my cash, whilst at the same time using some of the excess to part-subsidise those that feel differently.

Lo and behold, fast forward 18 months and I read the news that Charlton are adapting their ticketing policy for 2008/9 broadly on the lines I suggested:

"We have made some changes to the price structure because we wanted to reintroduce different match prices around the ground. The new season-ticket structure reflects that by introducing differentials in the more popular seating areas, so some prices have gone up and others have gone down."

If they did indeed find inspiration from my blog, I'm delighted to confirm I'll be providing the consultancy advice on a strictly pro bono basis (they're virtually a charity after all).

More seriously, the changes make a lot of sense and I welcome them. The continuation of the free Premiership season ticket offer was a 'no-brainer', although the value of the free option now embedded in a 2008/9 season ticket has been rather tarnished by this season's performances. Unfortunately I suspect it won't be a particularly powerful selling point this time around.

The only aspect that seems rather unnecessary is the implication that there are fixtures in the Championship that are more 'attractive' than others:

"The board has agreed that there will be a wider range of adult match prices next season, with a top price of £30 in the most expensive season-ticket blocks of the east and west stands for the most attractive fixtures and a standard price of £25 in those areas."

Other than possibly the fixture against Crystal Palace (who we may not play anyhow), none of the fixtures in this division whet the appetite. Perhaps it's time for the club to introduce a three-tier pricing structure for home games in 2008/9: "moderately attractive", "somewhat unattractive", and "how the hell did they get promoted?".

I'd even argue the number of fans at the Valley who even feel anything different about the Palace game, is broadly proportional to the number who saw the Addicks play home games regularly at Selhurst Park ie. not very many.

Although some of the claimed attendances at the Valley this season are about as credible as the government's official inflation figures, matches have been played on average to an 85% full stadium. Given the often sparsely filled Jimmy Seed Stand, this should be a source of great optimism. Meanwhile our average attendance of 23,024 is almost 50% higher than Palace's, and higher or on a par with Wigan, Portsmouth, Bolton, Reading, Fulham and Blackburn's.

I don't subscribe to the oft-held view that the team would be better off playing to a smaller but more passionate home crowd. A half-full stadium is truly a depressing sight to behold; just ask fans of Sheffield Wednesday (52% full on average), Burnley (55%) or Barnsley (49%). Let's instead pay tribute to the hard work of those who've worked tirelessly behind the scenes ever since even 'Target 10,000' seemed merely a pipe dream.

Friday, April 18, 2008

QPR preview

Charlton fans currently resemble sick animals, where the humane thing to do would be to put us out of our misery.

It remains absurd that the play-offs even remain a possibility with just 61 points from 43 games, but a win for Charlton tomorrow, defeat for Palace at Watford, and draw at Molineux would see us right back in the shake-up again. Ridiculous, but true. Then again, a defeat (and probably even a draw) for Charlton, and a Palace win and it's all over for the season.

I witnessed the home defeat to QPR in October, and in many ways it typified our season. Performances have lacked a cutting edge at home, and the players swiftly retreated back into their shells as the fans expressed their discontent. It's debatable which way the causation goes here, but just 8 wins from 22 home games (the same as our final opponents Coventry in 21st) is a sorry statistic.

However in defence of QPR, they did not look relegation material that day, and are now firmly in mid-table thanks to new management, and an injection of capital. One Charlton player assured a warm welcome however is Lee Cook, who donated his signing-on fee back to QPR before the recent takeover. One wonders if he got the money back, but knowing the ethics of most people involved in football, it's a silly question.

It's not clear what the motives are of the new owners, but QPR fans expecting a Chelsea-esque revival are likely to be disappointed. Some of their home attendances meanwhile have threatened to dip below the 10,000 mark this season (in a famously crappy stadium). In all likelihood it's a short-term bit of fun for their owners (they paid virtually nothing for it), with no desire for it to become a material cash burner as Chelsea has become for Abramovich.

Unlike Charlton however, they did benefit from being on the 'right' side of London (in the eyes of the world's billionaires at least), which should perhaps not be undestimated in light of our own failed searches for fresh capital.

Pards has shown more cavalier intent than Curbs ever did, but his risk-taking has not paid off often enough this season. Nonetheless, with anything less than a win almost worthless tomorrow, an extremely attacking line-up is assured. I expect us to line-up as follows: Weaver, Halford, Thatcher, Bougherra, McCarthy, Cook, Ambrose, Zheng, Holland, Gray, Lita. Subs: Elliot, Semedo, Shelvey, Iwelumo, Varney.

NY Addick predicts: QPR 0, Charlton 1 (Gray). Att: 14, 372.

Friday, April 11, 2008

Player of the Year

Voting for the 2007/08 Player of the Year will begin at The Valley on Saturday. The season has been as disappointing in some respects as 2006/07, but whereas Scott Carson stood out as a shining light amongst the darkness last time, there is no such obvious candidate this time around.

I feel strongly that the winner of this award should be the player whose consistent value-added is the greatest (and thus probably transfer value too), rather than the one who is seen merely to 'give his all'. The latter ought to be a given (although it's not sadly), and we should not be seen to reward players who have been promoted to roles they are not ultimately good enough to perform in. Unfortunately this might mean Andy Reid scoops the prize, but it remains to be seen if he's on the ballot.

The legitimacy of my views is compromised by having seen only perhaps a dozen games live or on TV, but nonetheless here are my brief views on the genuine contenders:

My vote as the photo suggests would be for Zheng Zhi, whose faultless effort, versatility and vital goals (albeit not lately) make him the single most important player on the teamsheet. His biggest fault is perhaps an indirect one; it's not clear what formation or playing style gets the best out of him. I suspect the freer the role, the better he becomes (like a modern-day version of Lee Bowyer in 1995/96), but we do not yet have the players around him to permit it. It's worth continuing to experiment however because he has plenty to offer; the team should be built around him next season.

My 2nd place vote would go to Nicky Weaver, which may come as something of a surprise. However if your goalkeeper does not stand out due to his brilliance (like Carson or Dean Kiely), then the best compliment you can pay them, is that you almost forgot they were there. The mistake at Plymouth joined others this season that could be counted on one hand, and the speed with which he won over doubting Addicks fans speaks volumes. An excellent pre-season piece of business by Pards.

My 3rd place vote would go to Paddy McCarthy who was so poorly treated earlier in the season, yet has been team's outstanding defender since returning to the side. There's nothing complicated about his play; he simply completes the basic defensive tasks with aplomb (tackling, clearing, blocking etc..), whilst providing the occasional threat at our own set-pieces too. He walks and talks like a leader, and should be made club captain for next season.

The remaining contenders do not fill me at least with great enthusiasm, although I'm conscious that Matt Holland is probably a warm favourite. His case is always aided by the consistent way he undertakes the least glamorous aspects of midfield play, but take that away, and there's nothing much left. If one was being super critical, one might suggest that those positive attributes are the very least one expects from an experienced and presumably well-paid central midfielder. Then again, we used to have Bryan Hughes.

Also sure to garner many votes, again albeit not necessarily for the right reasons, will be Chris Iwelumo. Until he powered home successive headed winners at Southampton and Bristol City, his height had appeared to be a burden rather than an asset. Indeed, his general physical presence is not the force it perhaps should be, and instead his most valuable contributions have often been of the more subtle kind (witness those two well-taken goals at home to Sheffield Wednesday for example). Like Holland, his commitment is not debatable, and like the Irishman too, he is the type of player who will only take you so far.....like 9th for example.

The forgotten man who we ought to be reminded of at this time is Jose Semedo. If the vote had taken place over Xmas, the Portuguese may well have topped the poll thanks to his low-profile but highly effective performances in the holding midfield role. The departure of Reid forced Pards to reshuffle his hand, and Semedo was one of the obvious cards to be tossed away. Results thereafter provide plenty of evidence that he got it wrong, and if the Plymouth game provides any clues, he may still make a late and valuable impact on our season.

Several other players have shown fleeting glimpses of their potential, and at various times fans have waxed lyrical variously about Kelly Youga, Lloyd Sam, Svetoslav Todorov, Yassin Moutaouakil, Sam Sodje, Grant Basey, Madjid Bougherra and Luke Varney. However none has managed it on a consistent basis, or more pertinently in those cases where injuries were not a big factor, none have persuaded Pards that they should be given the opportunity to do so.

Others plainly have the requisite talent and skills, but for whatever reason (probably lack of desire I fear), contribute very little except consistent frustration. I am thinking of course about the likes of Jerome Thomas (no goals) and Darren Ambrose (plenty of goals, but not much else). It's time for Charlton and them to move on.

Of those players not yet mentioned above, and who started more than five League games, none made either a notable positive impact, or suggested they might have done (Jonathan Fortune, Andy Gray, Greg Halford, Danny Mills, Ben Thatcher, and Chris Powell).

Finally I'm holding out late hope that Leroy Lita (6 games, 3 goals) can propel us to a highly unlikely play-off place, and perhaps Premiership promotion glory. For that alone, he should be awarded the trophy.

Southampton preview

Charlton's season has not left much to say, which partly explains the infrequency of my posts recently. We fight on to the end of course, but the overwhelming sense is one of an opportunity lost, not least given that we are still amazingly just ten points from top spot.

However that relatively narrow gap (at least when viewed in the context of our form since Xmas), should not blind us from the true size of the challenge awaits us next season, almost certainly in the Championship.

If one views the 2007/08 Championship as being an outlier in terms of its compactness, then we may well have an additional 20 points to find next season if we are to go straight up at the second attempt. With little net new money available for transfers, Pardew's (admirable) policy of buying players with potential, rather than fading Premiership stars, will be genuinely tested.

A glance at the bottom six in the table makes for grim reading, not only for tomorrow's visitors Southampton, but also as an example of what can go wrong for formerly 'stable' Premiership clubs.

Just above the avowed minnows of Colchester and Scunthorpe (albeit collectors of 8 points from Charlton this season), sit Leicester, Sheffield Wednesday, Southampton and Coventry. Each has had well-publicised financial problems, and whilst one has been led to believe Charlton is on a firmer footing, the inherent leverage within a declining football club can be devastating.

Saints fans will drown the Jimmy Seed Stand in a sea of yellow, the colour of cowardice. If Charlton's own attempts to drum up extra special away support are anything to go by, three points are assured for the Addicks. The most recent two performances at Blackburn and Middlesbrough respectively were a shambles.

After countless tactical and selection changes, Pards stumbled across a winning formula at Plymouth.....the tried and tested Halford and Thatcher at full-back, three ball-winners in midfield, and an old-fashioned 'little and large' partnership upfront. Each might reasonably be described as a retrograde step, but as ten years under Curbs proved, sometimes the best risks are the ones you don't take.

I expect Pards to line up as follows: Elliot, Halford, Thatcher, McCarthy, Bougherra, Cook, Semedo, Holland, Zheng, Iwelumo, Lita. Subs: Randolph, Fortune, Ambrose, Varney, Gray.

NY Addick predicts Charlton 2 (Lita, Zheng), Southampton 0. Att: 24, 810

Saturday, April 05, 2008

Plymouth Tonic

Coming from a city famous for its gin, it was appropriate that Charlton finally received a much needed tonic. My tipple of choice this evening is no contest.

I had unselfishly foregone Qatar's famous nightlife (surely some mistake - Ed.), to listen to commentary from the Wolves game, and their last minute equaliser felt very much like the final nail in our play-off coffin.

As a result of the Wolves deflation, plus the effect of jet lag from my flight home, I could not even summon up the enthusiasm to write my usual Plymouth match preview. Matters were not helped by the fact that other than its gin, I knew nothing else about the city except that it had delightfully named suburbs called Mutley and Pennycomequick.

It seems I was a little premature in writing this team off, and other results went firmly our way too. However, that Wolves winner could prove extremely costly indeed, because without it we'd now be sitting in a rather undeserved 6th place.

It does seem absurd that a team averaging less than 1.5 points per game, should even be remotely in touch with the play-offs, let alone just one point behind. However, notwithstanding the obvious mediocrity of this division, if we can show some of today's same fighting spirit over the final four games, that we maintain an outside chance.

The remaining fixtures of Charlton, Palace (game in hand), Cardiff (two games in hand) and the two teams immediately above us is as follows:

CHARLTON: Southampton (H), QPR (A), Barnsley (A), Coventry (H) Max: 72
IPSWICH: Cardiff (H), Norwich (H), Wolves (A), Preston (A), Hull (H)
Max: 75
WOLVES: Bristol C (A), WBA (H), Ipswich (H), Cardiff (H), Coventry (A), Plymouth (H)
Max: 79
PALACE: Stoke (A), Scunthorpe (H), Watford (A), Hull (A), Burnley (H)
Max: 74
CARDIFF: Ipswich (A), Blackpool (H), Scunthorpe (A), Wolves (A), Burnley (A), Barnsley (H) Max: 74

Ipswich would appear to be well-placed, given that three of their next four matches are against teams with nothing to play for. However the Tractor Boys aside, we would appear to have the second best run-in, particularly compared to Palace who have three treacherous away games against automatic promotion contenders.

Wolves still have to play Ipswich meanwhile after consecutive fixtures against automatic promotion contenders. Cardiff meanwhile will play a vital role, either directly (they can still reach 74 points) or indirectly through their fixtures against Wolves and Ipswich. What those three intra-rival matches means of course is that every team cannot meet its maximum, but in return between 6 and 9 points are in the bag, to be split amongst that trio.

From our perspective therefore, I would be confident that 72 points will be enough, whilst 69 or 70 points could well be. Before we get too excited that three more wins might do it however, fully our last twelve matches only yielded as much.

Pards opted for a narrower midfield today, something I had been advocating here before. His plans went out the window after just two minutes however, leading to the type of spirited ten-man display which has become the norm, not the exception for us this season. If only the management team could impose the same inspiration on the team, that a red card seems to engender, then we really could be onto something.

Leroy Lita meanwhile made it three goals in 74 minutes for the Addicks, and it's not beyond the realm of fantasy to suggest we have the best striker in the Championship for the run-in. If there's a lesson herein for Pards, it's perhaps to highlight the difference between being a 'proven' Premiership player available on loan, and a wholly 'unproven' one (Halford, Sinclair, Cook etc..). Whilst the former are not on offer very often, the two should not be confused as being one and the same.

On a different topic, if there was one story this week that summed up our season, it was the news that Jerome Thomas would be 'reassessing' his options should we fail to secure promotion. It was the implication that our likelihood of promotion, and Thomas' own form are mutually exclusive, that really rankled. Yet more evidence of the parallel universe that many young (and often English) footballers inhabit, not least given that he has contributed precisely zero goals to our campaign this season. He hasn't created too many either.

Presumably far hungrier to be involved this season (and for many more to come), will be Rob Elliot who has patiently waited for his chance via Notts County and Accrington Stanley. His compatriot Darren Randolph meanwhile will surely be recalled from Bury, and the two will fight it out on Saturday as the only ever-present appearance record for the Addicks comes to an end.

Saturday, March 29, 2008

Wolves preview

I'm writing this preview from Doha, Qatar where I landed late last night after a lengthy trip from New York, via Heathrow. Qatar is of course the new home of former Addicks cult hero, Talal el Karkouri (although that's not why I'm here).

As it happens, his new club (Qatar Sports Club) have a home game this evening, so if I have nothing better to do I might pop along and see if he still does that funny over-the-head clearance. Then again I suspect I'll have something better to do.

I was struggling to work out why the game kicked-off at 10pm until I left the hotel to go jogging at just 7am this morning, and it was already brutally hot. In case I didn't already stand out enough here being white and fair-haired, I decided to throw 'jogging in the blistering heat' into the mix. I dread to think what it's like here in August.

This trip will take me onto Dubai tomorrow night, and then finally Abu Dhabi before taking the tortuous 14-hour direct flight back to New York. Reading about the incredible amount of development in the region, I had been curious to visit for some considerable time.

Given the exceptional wealth transfer that has occurred as energy prices have rocketed, it's probably a pre-requisite for understanding the world today. It makes a refreshing change to be somewhere whose prospects look so bright, and I'll write a full report in due course.

Ironically the only person I know here (a sports presenter on Al Jazeera) is a Wolves fan, but she's flown over to Dubai to cover tonight's horse racing World Cup. I haven't managed to work out if the game will be shown here (my Arabic is a bit rusty), but I may be able to catch it on the internet if nothing else.

It was big of Pards to come out during the week and admit he'd made mistakes, specifically with regard to the loan players. Frankly, he's being a bit harsh on himself because they have only been mistakes with the benefit of hindsight. Few Charlton fans were complaining at the time when they heard that Messrs Cook, Halford, Sinclair and Lita were coming to the Valley. Cook and Lita in particular may still come through for us, we'll see.

Where the loan players may have indirectly caused problems is in terms of the extra options it offered Pards, because he did not seem what his preferred system was, even before they arrived.
Again I would argue this season was essentially a 'fresh start', and it was perhaps too much to expect instant gratification. The loan players have not had a big impact for sure, but other factors have played a bigger part, some enforced (eg. injuries) and some not (eg. constant selection/tactical switches).

Our play-off hopes will effectively end tonight if we lose, since the gap between us and sixth will be at least four points with just five games remaining. If we were in seventh place, there might still be hope, but we could well be 11th and there will be too many sides to overtake. Pards says we have 'nothing to lose' now, but it's a strange logic.....we have our (currently genuine) 'play-off' chances to lose!

I hope he lines up as follows: Weaver, Halford, Youga, Sodje, McCarthy, Cook, Zheng, Semedo, Thomas, Lita, Iwelumo. Subs: Elliot, Bougherra, Ambrose, Holland, Varney.

NY Addick predicts: Charlton 1 (Lita), Wolves 0. Att: 22, 844.

Thursday, March 27, 2008

Email Server Update

It's been a tumultuous few weeks for the Addicks. The team's form has taken a nosedive, whilst off the pitch our much-loved Chief Executive has handed in his resignation.

Despite the club's best efforts to stop me (they recently changed the password from 'bartram' to 'derekhales' for example) , I once again hacked into the email server to gauge the truth about recent goings on at The Valley:



From: cheryl.cole@hotmail.com
To: jerome.thomas@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Re: Ashley
-------

Hi Jerome

Thanks so much for your lovely email. It's certainly been a difficult few days for me.

Although I'm obviously very flattered by your offer, I'm not currently willing to consider anyone from outside the Premiership.

Take care

Cheryl

xxx


From: benefits@direct.gov.uk
To: cory.gibbs@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Disability Living Allowance
------

Dear Mr Gibbs

Congratulations! You are now eligible for a Disability Living Allowance of £43.15 per week.

Please call the Benefit Enquiry line on 0800 88 22 00 to make your claim.


From: pards@cafc.co.uk
To: barack.obama@senate.gov
Subject: Greetings from across the pond
-------

Dear Senator Obama

Firstly let me begin by congratulating you on your recent results in the Democratic primaries. We have a similar system over here called the 'play-offs' (where my record is just as impressive as yours, even if I say so myself!).

I couldn't help noticing that we were born within just days of each other in 1961. However, the similarities don't end there.....we both have the looks, the inspiration, and a willingness to embrace change (for example only last Friday, I unexpectedly gave Greg Halford his debut against Crystal Palace).

All the very best

Alan Pardew
Commander in Chief, Charlton Athletic FC


From: maria.lopez@club-med.es
To: pards@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Muchas gracias!
-------

Senor Par-doo

Muchas gracias for bringing your team to Spain for much-needed break! We hope you had lovely time.

Senor Halford was so funny...he really loves his sangria! I hope he feel better now.

Good luck for rest of season!

Maria Lopez


From: reg.varney@cafc.co.uk
To: james.walker@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Great news
-------

James

The doctors have confirmed that the serious life-threatening heart irregularity that you've had since birth has miraculously cleared up, so you're free to move to Southend United.

Good luck from all at CAFC.

Peter



From: andy.gray@cafc.co.uk
To: reg.varney@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Hotel complaints
-------

Peter

Would you kindly telephone the Marriott Bexleyheath on my behalf and complain in the strongest possible terms about the service I've received so far?

I've lost count of the number of times I've asked them to change the towels twice a day, whilst the internet connection is patchy at best. I think it might be starting to affect my form.

Regards

Andy

ps - you could also mention the Corby trouser press hasn't been working since Tuesday.


From: pards@cafc.co.uk
To: avram.grant@chelsea-fc.co.uk
Subject: Loans
-------

Shalom Avram!

I don't understand it....Chelsea are in cracking form, yet it seems the media still have it in for you.

Unfortunately as I learnt to my chagrin, they're obsessed with style not substance, so take this bit of advice from Uncle Pards....make sure your shirt is always at least a shade lighter than your jacket.

AP

ps - fancy sending SS on loan to The Valley?


From: pards@cafc.co.uk
To: greg.halford@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Blackpool
-------

Greg

I just wanted to apologise for describing you as a "...a f*cking useless slow lanky waste of space..." in front of the other lads.

Upon reflection, you are clearly not 'useless' since your throw-ins are pretty effective.

I stand by the rest of what I said however.

See you on Monday

Pards


From: reg.varney@cafc.co.uk
To: murray@cafc.co.uk
Subject: FW: Hotel complaints
------

That's it. I can't take it any longer. I'm resigning.

Peter

ps - If he wants to moan about service, tell him to have a word with our so-called midfield, not the staff at the flippin' Marriott.


From: stuart.mccall@bradfordcity.co.uk
To: pards@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Re: Osei Sankofa
------

Hi Alan

Thanks for your email. I must confess I've never heard of Osei Sankofa, and thus I've no idea how he's getting on.

Is he on loan at Brentford perhaps?

Regards, Stu


From: pards@cafc.co.uk
To: murray@cafc.co.uk
Subject: FW: Re: Loans
-------

I don't believe it....that shmuck Grant thinks I want Scott Sinclair, not Steve Sidwell.

We've spent more money on our wings than Boeing.


From: murray@cafc.co.uk
To: reg.varney@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Re: FW: Hotel complaints
-------

Peter

So sorry to hear that you'll be leaving. Any chance you could stay until 30 June to see out the ongoing replacement of the club carpets?

Richard

ps - I'll put it down to 'personal reasons'.


From: pards@cafc.co.uk
To: orthopedic@bupa-plymouth.org.uk
Subject: Re: Mr McLeod's operation
-------

Dr Roberts

Thank you for your email regarding Mr McLeod. I am very sorry to hear about the seriousness of his injury; we had great hopes for him in season 2011/12. This email should serve however as authorisation to go ahead with the required operation.

Good luck

Mr A. Pardew

ps - Funds are a little tight here, and between you and me, his form this season doesn't really warrant a private room.


From: kelly.youga@cafc.co.uk
To: pards@cafc.co.uk
Bcc: grant.basey@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Je ne comprends pas
-------

Monsieur le Gaffer

After Blackpool match you say, "No disrespect to Grant Basey but we really missed Kelly Youga."

Now for Burnley match you prefer Ben Thatcher. I don't think you know what you want.

Kelly


From: pards@cafc.co.uk
To: phil.parkinson@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Ipswich team selection
--------

Do you have an up-to-date squad list handy? I'm sure I've forgotten someone.


From: jonathan.fortune@cafc.co.uk
To: zheng.zhi@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Misunderstanding
-------

ZZ

I just wanted to apologise about the misunderstanding after training.

You thought I'd asked you if 'you liked Tibet', when infact I was wondering whether you enjoyed a flutter!

Thatch, JT and some of the lads were heading to Ladbrokes for the Gold Cup, and we were wondering if you wanted to come, that's all.

No harm done, eh? I'd never heard of Tibet to be honest.

Jon

ps - Can you teach me some of those karate moves?


From: pards@cafc.co.uk
To: phil.parkinson@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Re: Re: Ipswich team selection
-------

LEE COOK! I knew there was one.

I had a thought...how about a 3-1-2-2-1-1 formation? Sounds daft, but it adds up to ten and we've not tried it yet. LOL!


From: bookings@redwing-coaches.co.uk
To: reg.varney@cafc.co.uk
Subject: May 24th
-------

Peter

I've not received a response to several previous emails. Will you still be requiring 176 coaches going to Wembley Stadium on May 24?

We've had an identical enquiry from a Mr S. Jordan of Croydon, and do not have sufficient drivers to fulfil both bookings. Please let us know either way.

Kind regards, Redwing Coaches


From: order-update@amazon.co.uk
To: pards@cafc.co.uk
Subject: Your Amazon.com order 103-49829901-118928 has shipped!
-------

Dear pards@cafc.co.uk

The following item(s) were shipped today:

- 101 Great Answers to the Toughest Interview Questions, by Ron Fry

If you have questions about your order, you can visit http://amazon.co.uk/wheres-my-stuff

Thanks for shopping at Amazon.co.uk

Saturday, March 22, 2008

St Patrick's Day

Just four days after St Patrick's day, it was appropriate that Charlton discovered their own patron saint, also Irish and called Patrick.

His heroics were not enough to gain an extra two points (but they did plenty to salvage one), but it was another fine performance from the club's single most outstanding player during the second half of the season. All of which begs two questions: Why was he overlooked for so long? And second, why is he not wearing the Captain's armband?

We probably just about deserved a draw, although our nemesis Zoltan Gera almost denied us even that with a stunning late effort. Indeed it was noticeable that it was his far post header that set up Kevin Phillips for his equaliser; seemingly no lessons have been learned from the reverse fixture when the Hungarian virtually ended Chris Powell's career.

It was a bit of a 'nothing' performance; plenty of endeavour but no creativity. Very much the story of our season. If an unelightened American had leant over in the pub, and asked simply, "I'm not familiar with soccer; what exactly are the team in red attempting to do?", I might have been struggling for an answer. Admittedly for much of the game he could easily have interchanged 'red' with 'navy and white', but WBA showed a little more class, albeit in glimpses.

However if I had been required to find an answer for my imaginary new friend, I'd probably have spluttered something about 'getting the ball wide' as often as possible. All well and good, but with Ambrose and Thomas on the wings, you're more likely to get 'good service' in the concourse bars at half-time (and that's not saying much). A poor cross is far worse than no cross at all, because it surrenders possession.

So with Plan A unlikely to be very productive, there isn't really a Plan B, at least not with our current central midfield options. I like Jose Semedo and think he should play more often, but alongside Matt Holland, there's no prospect of a killer pass, nor a player breaking the back line from midfield. I don't like to blame the Irishman because he always gives his all, but he's neither good enough as the 'holding' player, nor the 'playmaker'. Our form since he reclaimed a regular berth don't do him many favours either; at least Semedo can fulfil the former role.

Zheng offers goals and a bit more pace, but we would then be too lightweight given the reluctance of the wideman to 'mix it' and get involved. Just one goal from a striker in our last nine matches says it all really (just look how average Leroy Lita looks in this line-up).

To get out of this division in an upwards fashion (very likely now a goal for next season, not this one), we will probably have to accept that 'luxury' players are not the answer. The impressive thing about Bristol City a couple of weeks ago was their sheer organisation, allied with hard work and a hefty premium placed on ball retention. There offered nothing spectacular whatsoever (they have scored just 46 goals after all), but it looks to be enough to win promotion.

If one thinks back to the team that lifted the Championship title in 2000, our midfield then was not exactly brimming with creativity. However the outstanding work-rate of the central pairing (two of Kinsella, Jones or Stuart), was matched and even bettered by that of Robinson and Newton on the flanks. So much so infact, that either could (and occasionally did) slot in at full-back when required; can you imagine the debacle that would result if Ambrose, Thomas or Sam did the same?

Although Andy Hunt's goals and consistency that season were helpful obviously, he did not enjoy the benefits of a regular partner, partnering Mendonca, Svensson and Pringle in almost equal proportions. However the system was consistent (always 4-4-2) and every player understood his responsibilities. If it sounds like I'm showering Alan Curbishley with praise, whilst comparing unfavourably with namesake Pardew, then indeed I am. I would merely suggest however that this need not be a permanent state of affairs.

The key difference that season was that Curbs essentially kept his entire relegation squad intact, adding only Dean Kiely, plus one or two squad players (Shields, Todd etc..). Pards meanwhile was given a blank canvas on which to paint, and perhaps not entirely surprisingly the result has been more Jackson Pollock than Claude Monet. We will be better next season.

Thursday, March 20, 2008

WBA Preview

Having managed somehow to maintain a play-off place despite stuttering form since late-November, the gravitational pull of mid-table has finally sucked us down. I've desperately tried to remain optimistic about our chances, but just 4 wins in our last 18 matches tells its own story.

Some will point out that this disappointing spell of form began when Andy Reid last wore a Charlton shirt (ironically against tomorrow's opponents). But does that really tell the full story? A quick scan of the apparent talent available to Pards suggests not, and would do a disservice to Reid's genuine but ultimately flawed ability.

So where does the blame lay? Perhaps we all simply had unrealistic expectations (me very obviously included), and that this season is merely setting the foundations for a medium-term building process. Certainly whilst achieving promotion from here is an unlikely prospect at this point, I see no great reason for abject pessimism. The core of our team is young, currently underperforming, but will surely only improve.

I am concerned however that a number of our players lack the hunger required to go to say Turf Moor on a miserable Tuesday night, and dig in for a result. Consider for example that fully nine of our starting eleven that night have played Premiership football before. One would hope that professional pride would be motivation enough, but who believes that anymore?

Pards will doubtless come under pressure from some quarters if our season continues to fade away, but we need to allow him to finish what he has started at The Valley. Consider the sheer number of players currently out on loan in the lower divisions; if just a couple return with the spark of Kelly Youga, then we really could be onto something. Not all of his transfer signings have paid off meanwhile, but the likes of Varney, Gray and Moutaouakil have plenty of potential. Injuries to the likes of Todorov and Bougherra just as they were coming into form meanwhile have not helped in the slightest.

On the back of three defeats, most fans might have preferred relegation fodder to be visiting The Valley rather than high-flying WBA. However it is precisely those types of games that we have squandered valuable points in, so I don't resent the visit of the Baggies, not withstanding our failure to beat them in three previous meetings this season. Sixth place remains a possibility, but it's no longer in our hands. Let the players just relax now and see what happens.

Some of Pardew's team selections in recent weeks have been a little baffling. Fans don't know as much as the manager (nor as much as they like to think), but equally they can see from bitter experience for example that Ambrose is not a wide player, or that Lita is not well-suited to playing as a lone frontman etc. etc.. Let's get back to basics in a classic 4-4-2: Weaver, Moutaouakil, Youga, Sodje, McCarthy, Cook, Holland, Zheng, Sinclair, Gray, Lita.

NY Addick predicts: Charlton 2 (Lita, Cook), WBA 0. Att: 24, 108.

Tuesday, March 18, 2008

Stripped Bear

(not Charlton related, but just as depressing)


It's been an interesting week for Wall Street. Firstly, the financial world's arch nemesis Eliot Sptizer was forced to resign after being embroiled in a prostitution ring.

Then just a few days later, the ongoing rumours about Bear Stearns became reality with terrifying speed, the company ultimately being flogged last night to JP Morgan Chase for a humiliating $2 per share.

Some random thoughts firstly on Eliot Spitzer. He was already independently wealthy thanks to his family's real estate fortune, but exactly how good at sex does a prostitute have to be to warrant $4,300 per hour?

Maybe I'm naive, but that's about the same amount I pay the wife for two months of shopping and child-raising, and I bet the lovely Miss Dupre didn't iron Governor Spitzer's shirts. Then again, with stock markets and house prices falling as quickly as they are, at least he got a decent return on his money.

Let's imagine that she can summon up the energy to do four hourly assignments per day (that's Dupre, not my wife). If I was her agent, I'd sell the work/life balance aspects to her as 'one hour on, two hours off'. If she started at a rather civilised 9am, she'd leave her last satisfied customer at 7pm, allowing plenty of time for dinner and a well-earned gin and tonic.

So she could earn $120,400 per week, or approx £60,000. Do those types of earnings remind you of any other profession by chance? For the first time I'm starting to think footballers might be underpaid, even the ones that play for Charlton.

Talking of people that needed a few grand before they got f*cked, Bear Stearns was the other big story last week in New York. Joe Lewis, the Bahamas-based UK billionaire is rumoured to have personally lost over $1billion buying up Bear Stearns stock during recent months.

Interestingly, Lewis is indirectly the owner of Tottenham Hotspur which really does prove that every cloud has a silver lining. Darren Bent meanwhile was said to be 'over the moon', that he was now only his second worst investment of all time.

As someone who has been cynical, and at times downright contemptuous about the sham that masqueraded as US/UK capitalism over the past five or so years, we are now firmly in the 'I told you so' stage. Unfortunately as I relayed to a journalist friend at the Financial Times today, we are about to head into the 'now I'm also really scared' stage.

A quick recap on how we got here. Global interest rates were cut sharply after the tech bubble burst in 2000, and again after the terrorist attacks in Sep 2001. The (flawed) attraction of low nominal interest rates set in train a wave of leverage which lifted asset prices across the world, particularly property and equities. As asset prices rose further, confidence grew that even more leverage could be applied, thus creating a seemingly virtuous circle that the bulls tried to explain in the language of a 'new paradigm', as opposed to just another bubble.

I think there's an Arabic phrase that, '...money fills the cracks.' Inevitably with the application of leverage seemingly being risk-free, money did indeed fill the cracks, most notoriously in the realm of the US subprime borrower. However this current crisis is not about unemployed 'homebuyers' in Michigan, because the first cracks could have appeared anywhere across the spectrum of dumb lending. Thus any forlorn hope that the crisis would be limited to the large (but ultimately manageable) losses of $250bn or so from subprime, are clearly now in tatters.

Barely a week has passed during the last year, when even those who pay a keen interest in the markets, have not been forced to learn about some new grotesque financial creation. Terms such as SIVs, conduits, Alt-A mortgages, option ARMs, monoline insurers, and CDO squared, have entered the lexicon of even the tabloids, as editors scurry to explain to their readers what it all means to them.

The degree to which the world's banks have expanded their balance sheets in just a few years is truly mind-boggling. By way of an example, Merrill Lynch has so far written off $24.5billion in capital, equivalent to fully 68% of its book value at 1st Jan 2007. That book value represented the accumulated equity and reserves of a 93-year old institution, the sum total of the hard work and innovation of its countless past employees, just simply now vanished at the stroke of an auditor's pen.

The solution to most financial crises, is simply to cut interest rates. Unfortunately this has not, and more worryingly will not solve this crisis. The problem ironically is not a lack of money nor the cost thereof; the sovereign wealth funds of Asia and the Middle East particularly are flush with cash, as ultimately are the central banks whose ability to print money is essentially limitless, inflation concerns aside.

The problem this time is one of solvency, and a complete lack of transparency; the banks need equity right now, not liquidity. Those aforementioned sovereign wealth funds initially provided some, and have already been burned. They won't be so forthcoming this time around.

Millions of loans issued to US homebuyers (and UK ones too I suspect) are fundamentally 'insolvent'; there is no interest rate (including zero) which will allow the borrower to make good on the loan. Meanwhile, thanks to the aforementioned financial creativity of the banks in recent years (especially as it pertains to 'securitisation', ie. the slicing up of debts) no-one can be sure where the losses lie, or more pertinently how much they amount to.

Thus cue a complete unwillingness to lend even to other banks, let alone to apparently creditworthy homeowners, investors or corporations. The virtuous circle has turned vicious, and to its list of victims one can now add Bear Stearns to Northern Rock.

At some level it was reassuring that the Federal Reserve negotiated a successful bailout for Bear Stearns, before the demand for cash from its counterparties and clients turned into a devastating rout. At least for now, they have avoided the humiliation of nationalisation that now haunts the UK. However the share price action today, particularly as it pertained to another venerable Wall Street institution Lehman Brothers, suggests that the 'great unwind' remains firmly in motion.

In all likelihood, the Fed will cut US interest rates by a further 0.75% on Tuesday (possibly by more), in another desperate, but surely flawed attempt to kick start the credit motor again. Eventually the Bank of England will cut UK rates to 3% and beyond, and damned be the pound and inflation.

The main benefit of the rate cuts however will be to further 'steepen' the yield curve (increasing the difference between short-term and long-term interest rates), allowing those banks in the strongest relative positions (think HSBC, JP Morgan Chase, Lloyds TSB etc..) to slowly increase margins, and to begin rebuilding capital. The weaker financial institutions meanwhile will either fail, be nationalised or be snapped up at firesale prices.

The authorities on both sides of the Atlantic are terrified of recession, but it's exactly what both countries need to reassert equilibrium. The UK's current account deficit is now larger (as a % of GDP) than America's, which is the only statistic you need to be highly sceptical of Messrs. Brown or Darling's assertions that the economy is in good shape, or at least immune from the current financial shenanigans. The days of 'spend today, save tomorrow' are over; for the timebeing, cash is king and the piper finally needs to be paid.

When global interest rates were cut after 2000 (see above), it was occurring alongside deflationary pressures emanating from China, India and other emerging markets, aided by the fixed currency pegs that many of them still adopt. Thus the authorities in the West were seemingly able to produce the so-called 'Goldilocks' scenario of solid growth and controlled inflation ('not too hot, not too cold').

By extrapolating this pleasant but unrealistic scenario forward, many of the stupid assumptions that inflated this bubble were built, as if our new friends in Asia wouldn't one day demand the same living standards that we now take for granted.

Unfortunately for us, those same nations have now created a degree of self-sufficient growth, from which their demand for commodities is seemingly insatiable, whilst their supply is inherently constrained (think the 'peak oil thesis' for example). Thus unlike after the tech bubble, the central banks in the developed world now seemingly face a choice between either 'stagflation' (rising inflation and unemployment), or 'deflation', a catastrophic debt-fuelled bust, similar to that experienced by Japan in the 1990s.

Neither prospect is particularly edifying, but for now they seem to have opted for the former as the lesser of two evils. I trust you've buried gold in the garden.

Friday, March 14, 2008

Ipswich preview

It is not clear what Charlton have to do to give up fifth position in the Championship, but we must give up at least a place if we lose at Portman Road tomorrow.

Given that the Tractor Boys will begin the day in tenth place, it shows how thin the line ultimately will be between a play-off place and midtable mediocrity. Unfortunately, whilst it may be the result of a combination of travel and work-related fatigue, it's hard for me to summon up much excitement about tomorrow's encounter, or indeed the rest of the season.

Our best hope thereof is to limp across the play-off line, at which point the slate will be wiped clean for the contenders. A four-way battle meanwhile for the two automatic places may conceivably work in the favour of the teams finishing 5th and 6th, since they will not be wondering 'what might have been'.

The performance at Burnley appears to have been a marked improvement, but the result was the same. In light of Ipswich's outstanding home record, we will have our work cut out not to record three consecutive defeats for the first time since October.

Portman Road has been the site of some famous away wins in recent years. Few of us will forget the day Carl Leaburn sealed a hat-trick with a penalty in 1995/96, nor Kevin Lisbie's stunning late winner 2001/02. Meanwhile, although an unlikely prospect at this point, the omens for a possible play-off rematch against Ipswich would be good given our two previous victories in 1986/87 and 1997/98.

Although partly injury-enforced, Charlton fans often find themselves scratching their heads at yet another unpredictable Pardew team selection. As Liverpool fans will tell you, when such rotation leads to good results, the manager can be labelled a genius. When they do not, he quickly becomes a 'tinkerman'.

I expect Pards to tinker as follows: Weaver, Halford, Thatcher, Sodje, McCarthy, Thomas, Ambrose, Zheng, Holland, Gray, Lita. Subs: Elliot, Fortune, Semedo, Varney, Iwelumo.

NY Addick predicts: Ipswich 2 (Counago 2), Charlton 0. Att: 25, 938.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Burnley preview

After the shameful display at the weekend, tomorrow night offers a fixture for the romantics to reminisce about....Burnley vs Charlton.

In light of Saturday's performance, the horrid weather and the usual midweek travel challenges, our away support at Turf Moor could well be in just double figures. At least Pards won't be able to blame the unrealistic expectations of the watching Addicks.

In case anyone had forgotten where the humble supporter lay in the 'priorities of the authorities' (a good name for an album there), Blackpool travel to QPR, on the same evening that we travel to Burnley. Of course it would be too difficult to carve the league into 'north' and 'south' for the purposes of selecting those fixtures to be played midweek.

A good friend of mine here in New York is a Burnley fan. Along with a fellow WBA fan here, we struck a unique betting proposition. For each of the six fixtures between our respective clubs, the loser (if applicable) would be obliged to purchase a top-quality bottle of champagne to share with his two compatriots. In addition, further bottle(s) would be due at the end of the season based upon respective league positions.

Ever the charitable type (especially where northerners are concerned), I leaped to the defence of my Burnley friend and declared the competition fundamentally unfair given the relegation battle they would surely soon to be embarking upon. "Have a 26-point head start," I offered eagerly, perhaps the most costly misjudgment since Richard Murray turned to Les Reed and said, "...well done, you've got the job." Just for good measure, I gave WBA a 2-point start as well.

In light of the two defeats so far, the current league table, plus a bonus FA Cup defeat for good measure, it's not for nothing that I'd surely be heartily cheered if I visited the vineyards of Moet & Chandon, or Verve Clicquot. I wouldn't mind, but it's not even my tipple of choice; it's guaranteed to end in a headache.

I've been desperately searching for positives from Saturday, and I think I've found one. If there's something worse than losing when you've played badly, it's losing when you've played well. The latter requires a tender approach from management to lift the players from their morose state. The former meanwhile requires a good old-fashioned kick up the backside, and hopefully (even in the minds of today's modern footballer) a strong motivation to win back some pride.

The omens are actually pretty good. Firstly let's cheer up a bit; we've only lost 5 of our last 18 league games, a run that immediately followed the home defeat against the Clarets. Admittedly we've only won 6, but the last two (shocking) defeats (versus Scunthorpe and Blackpool) were followed immediately by excellent controlled wins over Palace and Sheffield United respectively. Indeed we've only had one pair of back-to-back losses since October.

It's that Jekyll and Hyde nature of our form particularly in 2008 which continues to surprise and infuriate, probably not least Pardew himself. Some have suggested the spate of loan signings has destabilised the club, but the jury is out in my view. It is difficult to argue that Mills and Sodje have not added value, whilst it is surely too early to form a conclusion about Cook, Sinclair and Lita. Greg Halford just doesn't look like a footballer to me, and I'd much rather see Moutaouakil partnering Youga on the flanks, as he did to good effect for a while.

However the true value of the loan players may emerge just when we need it to, in the play-offs. Rather than a last-gasp attempt to secure automatic promotion, perhaps it is actually a moderately high-risk strategy to mould a new short-term team which can just do enough to secure a top six berth, but which then reaches its peak as others are fading. It doesn't take a enormous leap of faith to imagine that the nervous looking Sinclair, or the rusty Lita might both be tearing defences apart in two months time.

The answer probably just lies in the 'work in progress' nature of the team this season, emerging as it did from the ashes of last season. The sum of our bulging squad has clearly been less than its parts, but we're still fifth for goodness sake and still probably (just) odds on for a play-off berth. If I retrospectively inject my early-season optimism with a healthy does of realism, and handily ignore my champagne bill, then I might dare to suggest this season has been a minor success. Go on challenge me, I dare you.

I'm determined to second-guess Pardew's team selection at least once more this season, although his unpredictability, combined with Saturday's disaster, make this an even more precarious choice than usual. The away games at Burnley, Ipswich and Plymouth will define our season, so it's vital he gets it right: Weaver, Halford, Youga, McCarthy, Sodje, Cook, Zheng, Holland, Semedo, Varney, Gray. Subs: Elliott, Fortune, Ambrose, Iwelumo, Lita.

NY Addick predicts: Burnley 1 (Cole), Charlton 2 (Zheng, Lita). Att: 14, 209.

Sunday, March 09, 2008

Preston Dead End

As half-time approached, I turned to the fellow sufferer next to me (who was well-aware of my NYA alter ego) , and declared, "I'm glad I don't have to watch this every week."

When you have only seen seven games in the flesh this season, but they've included those at home against Scunthorpe, QPR and now Preston (Total points: 1), one is torn between two opposing conclusions.

Either those performances (and presumably several more like them), are a damning indictment on Alan Pardew's ability to maximise the potential of such a strong squad, albeit on paper only. Or perhaps alternatively he should be warmly congratulated for having managed, despite being let down with such regularity by his players, to keep us firmly in the top six essentially all season, and not allowed us to tamely fall away like say, Sheffield United.

Yesterday's result could have been considerably worse. After all, Tamas Priskin had already wasted a golden chance before his compatriot Chris Brown scored, whilst the Hungarian was thwarted superbly by Nicky Weaver early in the second half. Meanwhile one could argue Paddy McCarthy's slightly fortuitous equaliser was Charlton's only meaningful chance of the game.

The first surprise occurred before the game had even started. As expected Leroy Lita started, but most would have presumed his ideal strike partner would be Andy Gray (or perhaps Chris Iwelumo), but certainly not Luke Varney, an eager channel-runner, but hardly a target man. Meanwhile, as a result of reverting to 4-4-2, Darren Ambrose was returned to a position on the left-flank from which he has never impressed, and did not do so again today.

However given that Varney did start alongside Lita, it presumably was not in the gameplan to hoof hopeful long balls in their general direction, rather than seek to exploit their pace in a more subtle fashion. Unfortunately it seems Greg Halford (total transfer value: £5.75m) in particular must have missed the teamtalk.

Inevitably we failed to retain any sort of quality possession, the ever-enthusiastic central midfield pair of Zheng and Holland were threatened with neck strain as the ball sailed over their heads, whilst Ambrose and Sam/Sinclair were rendered redundant. It really was one of the most dreadful first half performances I can recall seeing, and whilst the booing was hardly helpful, the blame lay squarely on the pitch.

We looked better (all relative of course) when Andy Gray had replaced Varney at half-time. Whilst the Scot has yet to open his scoring account, there's something about his style that suggests to me he will be a big asset next season if we remain in the Championship (an ever more likely outcome at this point). Not only is he also called 'Andy', but he looks like our former hero Hunt, and plays an awful lot like him too. Fans will recall meanwhile that he also took time to settle, before catapulting us to a Championship title as top scorer in his second season.

It was poetic justice of sorts when Brown's brilliant second goal killed off any hopes of a Charlton victory, that would have been totally undeserved, but for a minute or so was not entirely off the cards. We had shown a greater inclination to pass the ball in the second period, but the frequency with which promising situations were curtailed by miscontrols or crosses that failed to beat the first defender, suggested that any goal we scored would ultimately be a messy one, and so it transpired.

I am reluctant to list my player ratings for fear of wearing out the '4' button on my PC. Suffice to say that Weaver and Holland in particular were largely blameless, whilst Pards needs to swifly learn how to say, "Zheng, please play for us next season" in Mandarin. Leroy Lita meanwhile should be commended for showing considerable enthusiasm, even if he was surely tempted to call Steve Coppell at half-time and beg for parole. He needs to start alongside Gray for the remainder of the season.

Friday, March 07, 2008

Preston preview

Saturday's fixture will be the last of the trio that I will get to see on this trip, one that began with considerable optimism at Bramall Lane, now injected with a dose of realism after a flat performance on Tuesday night.

Away from matters on the pitch, it's been a unusually busy week for the Addicks, one that's seen the arrival of yet another Premiership loan signing (our fifth), as well as the confirmed departure of Peter Varney. As if that wasn't enough excitement, Izale McLeod's career at Charlton went from bad to worse following a serious injury sustained for Colchester.

The arrival of Leroy Lita can't be anything but a positive for us, but it perhaps does not reflect well on Pardew's judgment, having spent approx £4m on Andy Gray and Luke Varney, and brought in Iwelumo, albeit on a free. With the additional presence of Scott Sinclair (who can presumably play as a striker), it implies he does not consider that trio good enough.

With the squad now at our disposal (now including five Premiership players with a total market value of perhaps £12m+), it would be something of an indictment if we fail to at least reach the play-offs. There's been a nagging sense that Pards has never worked out what his best team (or even formation) is, and thus just adding new personnel arguably increases the problem, rather than solves it.

Peter Varney's departure meanwhile was not an enormous surprise to me at least, although the exact details of his 'personal reasons' were not disclosed. Notwithstanding the lack of disclosure, it must be deflating after seven Premiership years, to find yourself managing the day-to-day shrinkage of the club's balance sheet. It can't be much fun declaring redundancies, cutting back budgets and 'enjoying' the hospitality at Scunthorpe or Blackpool.

I have never met Varney, although I treasure the framed letter on my wall confirming that they would not be pursuing my application to be first team coach. Given the nature of my application, it's perhaps indicative of the warm regard in which he's held, that he took the time to even sign the rejection letter.

The positive direction of the club was clearly inspired by the likes of Richard Murray and Martin Simons (and not least by their money), but Varney was entrusted with executing their plans, and it's firmly been a job well done in that respect. Some of the cases he argued on the club's behalf smacked a little of unrealistic self-righteousness (Chelsea's sandy pitch; the Osei Sankofa High Court injunction etc..), but presumably he was only obeying orders. Either way, thanks Peter for all your hard work, and good luck in the future.

I perhaps ought to see some sort of Harley Street specialist, but I still can't shake off the thought that we might still win automatic promotion. Eight wins from ten would take us to 80 points, quite possibly enough to ensure one of the two top spots. I'm not sure I fancy our chances at Ipswich, or at home to WBA, but as for the others, why not? They begin on Saturday.

Guessing Pardew's line-up in recent weeks has been akin to selecting numbers for the National Lottery; essentially a random process, with virtually no chance of being correct. However I'm relatively confident that we will line up as follows on Saturday: Weaver, Halford, Youga, McCarthy, Sodje, Thomas, Zheng, Holland, Sinclair, Lita, Gray. Subs: Elliot, Thatcher, Ambrose, Cook, Varney.

NY Addick predicts: Charlton 1 (Lita), Preston 2 (Carter, Mellor). Att: 23, 181.


Tuesday, March 04, 2008

Bristol Cream

After the high of seeing my first Charlton away win since 2003, it was inevitable that tonight would feel flat. However I'd forgotten how much I enjoyed the floodlit Valley atmosphere, not withstanding the difficulty in getting there by 7.45.

Having bemoaned our slow starts at The Valley, we began where we had left off at Bramall Lane, scored a terrific opener, and thereafter we were mediocre, and arguably lucky to secure a point. It was as if we scored too early.

As expected, Pards named an unchanged side although Darren Ambrose appeared to be playing at the apex of the central midfield 'triangle', with Zheng reverting to a deeper role. Andy Gray returned to a bench meanwhile that was full of attacking intent, but ultimately to no avail.

The opening goal was somewhat unexpectedly contrived. Greg Halford had trotted 30 yards or so from the right flank to take a throw-in, yet the enigmatic Kelly Youga opted to throw it quickly and short, before being involved again on the edge of the box, teeing up Ambrose who finished cooly. In a way, the build-up to the goal emphasised our subsequent problems; too little football, and too many speculative long balls and in Halford's case, long throws.

Whether under the direction of Pards or otherwise, the goal served to stall our momentum, and although Nicky Weaver was rarely troubled, we seemed only too pleased to watch Bristol City maintain the bulk of possession. Jerome Thomas was lively on the left flank, but the 4-5-1 formation that worked so well in Sheffield lacked guile and inspiration tonight. It was no surprise when one of Saturday's heroes Chris Iwelumo, was withdrawn in the second half.

If anything we only got worse in the second period, Bristol City earning a deserved equaliser perhaps not in terms of chances created, but their willingness to play passing football to a higher quality than we managed for 82 minutes. They probably sensed three points were there for the taking as opposed to just one, which offered Charlton a sniff or two of a winner on the break, but Matt Holland's strike was the closest we came (ironically deflected over by Luke Varney).

Given that City hit the crossbar and forced a last-gasp tackle from Youga at the death, it was very much a point gained at the final whistle, but any dreams we may have had of winning an unlikely second consecutive Championship title, are now surely dashed.

City were hardly world-beaters tonight, but one could see why they are currently the cream of the division. Their passing was generally crisper, their movement subtler (especially from the impressive Nick Carle), whilst Dele Adebola led the line admirably, and seemingly bravely too. Andy Gray gave one or two hints that he might have done a similar job for Charlton had he started, but it would have been harsh on big Chris.

Perhaps Pards could have moved to a 4-4-2 sooner, or perhaps Sinclair and Cook could have been given a genuine chance, but in truth for the first time I'm inclined to conclude (for numerous reasons) that we've run out of excuses....we're simply not good enough for automatic promotion this season.

If only we could effectively secure at least a play-off place, one senses we can relax and push on either for an unlikely 2nd, or at least 3rd or 4th place that would give second leg home advantage. However with away trips to Plymouth, Ipswich and Barnsley still to come, if you offered me 6th right now, I'd probably grab your hand off. Say what you like about the Championship, but it's a fascinating division.

Here are my player ratings:



Weaver 6 - was not forced into any meaningful saves, but handling was secure enough
Halford 5 - laboured going forward, and did not convince in defence; throw-ins were nullified
Youga 5 - far too casual on occasion; plays with Ronaldo-esque confidence, but the Portuguese winger warrants it
Sodje 6 - given a harder time by Adebola than James Beattie
McCarthy 7 - a natural leader; kept the defence together under pressure
Thomas 7 - showed touches of real class; he should have been the best player in this division
Ambrose 6 - hard to argue with his scoring record, but does he do enough elsewhere?
Holland 7 - you always know exactly what you'll get, and guess what? You got it.
Zheng 7 - arguably the most important player in the side; just a little too similar to Holland
Varney 5 - didn't get the breaks tonight; if Pards insists on 4-5-1, would Sinclair or Sam not be a better option?
Iwelumo 5 - well-shackled and under-supported
----
Gray 6 - no obvious telepathy with Varney, but a cannier footballer than Iwelumo perhaps
Sinclair 5 - lovely yellow boots, but not clear he was wearing studs underneath
Cook - a pointlessly late introduction for the obviously tiring Ambrose

(brief) Bristol City preview

Time constraints prevent me from writing a fuller preview, but having enjoyed a thoroughly professional win at Sheffield United, I'll just say that we should expect the same line-up, appeal for the same performance, and hope for the same outcome.

Many of us have been expecting Bristol City's momentum to falter, but their amazing propensity to register single-goal wins has seen them climb to the Championship summit. I'm not sure which was the last team to win two consecutive promotions to reach the Premiership (Manchester City perhaps?), but it would be a marvellous achievement if they managed it.

The nine-point gap between the two sets of 'Robins' is less of a chasm than it seems given tonight's opportunity, and City's amazing goal difference of just +3.

NY Addick predicts: Charlton 2 (Varney, Ambrose), Bristol City 0. Att: 22, 820.

Sunday, March 02, 2008

Closer than a Blade

I had already begun to plan my post-match blog before the game had even started….."...if only the players could sh