Hughes Clues

With Darren Bent's record move to Spurs confirmed earlier today, and with London on high terrorist alert, the club perhaps concluded today was a good day to 'bury the bad news' that Bryan Hughes is leaving too.

To paraphrase contestants on 'Bullseye', he 'came here for nothing' so Curbishley's punt on him in July 2004 was a low risk proposition, at least compared to the £2m+ signings of Jeffers, Rommedahl and Murphy around the same time.

My memories of him as a Birmingham player were as a tricky winger, but he was typically played as a creative central midfielder, a role in which he was never remotely Premiership class. Indeed, unfair as it might sound, if one accepts that the last three Premiership seasons were our worst, then the presence of Hughes (and others admittedly) throughout, might not have been a mere coincidence.

It wasn't that he did anything particularly 'wrong' during a game, nor lacked for effort as such, but matches simply seemed to pass him by, with the odd goal (particularly in the FA Cup for some reason) never making up for this lack of overall influence. As a rarely-used squad player he would have been adequate, but towards the end of Curbishley's reign particularly, he was offered a regular berth that he wasn't good enough to justify.

Some Charlton fans, misguided in my view, believed he could have done a reasonable job in the Championship and thus perhaps warranted a new deal. However Pardew is clearly keen to stamp his authority on the club, and move it in a different and fresher direction. Holland in; Hughes out.....that's not a decision that many of us would disagree with.

Bent Earns His Spurs

They took their time, but the respective Boards of Charlton and Spurs have finally agreed a fee for Darren Bent, namely £15.5m upfront (in instalments) and a further £1m in contingencies. Websites in the US are describing it as a '$33million deal' which sounds much more exciting.

As I insisted previously, we were never likely to match the £17m that West Ham supposedly offered and that Charlton insisted was the minimum valuation, but nonetheless we have received a fair price. The effect of the instalments might be material to us however, and it would be interesting to learn the exact basis for them; £15.5m over three years is not the same as £15.5m upfront as any accountant will tell you.

It is rare in football these days for the fans of the selling club not to have any antagonism towards the departing player, but in this case there ought to be good wishes from every Charlton fan (even if I would have liked him to have joined a Champions League club). In every game he played for us he was a model professional, and several cuts above the mediocrity around him. Good luck Darren.

Reality Check

During a particularly boring meeting yesterday, I took the trouble to review how our squad for next season currently looks. Unfortunately it was a useful reality check to my initially bullish outlook for our prospects next season.

When we won the Championship title in 2000, we did it with a stable and balanced team of good proven players. Each of Kiely, Rufus, Powell, Kinsella, Stuart, Robinson, and Newton started 30 games or more. The achievement of that combination of balance and quality will dictate our season.

GOALKEEPER: Presuming that Thomas Myhre is on his way, it is hard to imagine we will begin the season with Darren Randolph as first choice, and Rob Elliot as back up. Hence this is clearly a priority area for a new signing, and given the Premiership clubs' preference for three quality keepers, we will probably be forced to opt for an ageing keeper on a short-term deal (Maik Taylor?). Verdict: Urgent need for reinforcement.

RIGHT BACK: I would not rule out the possibility of Luke Young staying at the club, though his England ambitions would suffer. Assuming he does go however, and with Kish already gone, we will probably have two youngsters Osei Sankofa and Yassin Moutouakil fighting for the No. 2 shirt, with Simon Walton as a possible option. Personally I remain unconvinced by Sankofa, even at Championship level, whilst Moutouakil must consitute a risk despite the potential signalled by French U-21 captaincy. Verdict: If Young leaves, a cheaper replacement may be warranted.

LEFT BACK: With Hreidarsson gone, Ben Thatcher would appear to have the left-back spot all to himself, unless Cory Gibbs both gets fit and stays at the club, or Kelly Youga is ready to step up after his loan spell(s) in League One. Whilst he may yet surprise us and justify his transfer fee, Gibbs remains the 'mystery man' at the club, not least because we didn't have a manager when we signed him! As for Thatcher, after a promising start his form tailed off badly and I am particularly concerned about his inability (or unwillingness) to get forward Chris Powell-style. Verdict: In the absence of a Phoenix-like revival for Gibbs, we surely need reinforcements.

CENTRE BACK: Following the signing of Jose Semedo, we at least seem to have the bases covered here, suggesting rumours that Anthony Gardner will be the makeweight in the Darren Bent deal are probably false. Both El Karkouri and Hreidarsson have moved on, but in addition to Semedo, we have signed Paddy McCarthy, and have the engimatic Madjid Bougherra likely to line up alongside the Irishman. The future of Jon Fortune is unclear (presumably Pards didn't fancy him given his loan spell at Stoke), but Soulemayne Diawara may just be the joker in our pack next season, not only because he stays but because he is the foundation upon which we build our promotion campaign. Verdict: In good shape.

CENTRE MIDFIELD: The mere phrase 'central midfield' sends shudders down the spine of any Charlton fan that remembers when the likes of Kinsella, Jensen, Parker, Murphy or Smertin graced the Valley turf. The irony of our relegation is that our entire central midfield is now back at its 'true level' but a combination of Holland, Faye, Hughes, Walton, and a (rarely fit) Reid does not strike me as a promotion-winning one. If Darren Bent is sold, this is the one area which justifies a £3-4m type investment in a single player. Verdict: Sorting out the central midfield is long overdue.

WIDE MIDFIELD: Despite having the various talents of Rommedahl, Thomas and Ambrose at their disposal, our three managers last season never managed to tap their obvious potential. With Rommedahl almost certain to leave, and Thomas likely to follow, there is a clear opportunity for Darren Ambrose to prove he is a cut above the rest of this division. Lloyd Sam meanwhile showed glimpses of his promise, but he is unlikely to be ready yet for a regular berth in the Championship, despite experience at this level at both Southend and Sheffield Wednesday. Martin Christensen remains the unknown quantity meanwhile. Verdict: Given Pardew's preference for 4-4-2, this must require some more experienced reinforcement, especially if Thomas leaves.

FORWARDS: The brilliance of Darren Bent disguised the horrible lack of depth in this department last season. Hasselbaink flopped and has left; Marcus Bent scored just one goal meanwhile, and has precisely the wrong attitude for the promotion battle about to commence. Recognising the problem, Pards moved quickly to secure the services of big Chris Iwelumo and Luke Varney who certainly on paper at least, should have plenty to threaten Championship defences with. Kevin Lisbie's tenure at the club will surely end this summer (I'm not so sure - Ed.), but James Walker and Chris Dickson should provide the requisite hunger and youthful exhuberance to provide some healthy competition. Having said that, rumours that we are linked with Jason Roberts or Rob Earnshaw suggest Pards knows this won't be enough (and rightly so). Verdict: One more experienced striker will leave us well-covered.

Our signings so far suggest a preference for youth, and it's probably a sensible strategy. Whilst we ought to be firmly in the promotion shake-up, nothing is assured and this will at least leave us in better shape longer-term if we fail to bounce straight back. Whilst the Charlton futures particularly of Diawara, Young, Thomas, Gibbs, and Marcus Bent need clarifying, realism suggests that we need to be seeing at least 5-6 new signings between now and Aug 11 in order to remain optimistic that we can justify our bookmaker favouritism. A goalkeeper would be a good start.

Men Only

"I felt like a man trapped inside a woman's body. And then I was born." (Chris Bliss)

The BBC are reporting that Charlton are scrapping their women's team. Formed in 2000 when Croydon moved under the CAFC umbrella, they have evolved into one of the most successful teams in the country.

I don't care much for women's football (or women's sport in general to be honest). There are plenty of things I enjoy watching women do, but playing football isn't one of them. However to declare little interest in watching them is not to say that I don't strongly support their participation. Ditto, Charlton Deaf FC and numerous other CAFC initiatives.

Living here in the US, football (soccer) is generally considered a 'women's sport', and the so-called 'soccer Mom' is an electoral phenomenon not dissimilar to 'Essex man' in the UK. Cultural barriers in the UK however ensure that women's football will always be seen as little more than a pastime, but the community benefits are very positive. Presumably, anyone with a teenage daughter would rather her be enrolled in a professionally organised football program, than loitering at the bus stop.

When Charlton's women's team was set up in 2000, it was not surely with the expectation of it delivering a financial return in the long-run. There must however have been several indirect benefits, and it was just another example to the good people of South East London that here was a friendly inclusive football club that you would be welcomed at, man or woman, black or white. The team also provided that rare phenomenon....a team called 'Charlton' winning a match televised by Sky.

So to scrap the team now, having built it into a successful operation, seems almost unfathomably clumsy and myopic. It also suggests to me that the club's finances are in worse shape than the Board might have us realise, even with the sale of Darren Bent imminent. We all know cuts have to be made, but where do you draw the line? How much have Kevin Lisbie's wages drained from the club in the past ten seasons? And what about our famed Academy which, in the past five years or so, has done everything except the one thing it was set up to do?

Those that disagree with my point of view here will argue that the club is about the men's first team and nothing else. But Charlton is different, and has only managed to build a brand which has sold 17,000+ season tickets in the Championship by selling itself as the 'community club'. It has led to plenty of mickey-taking (I enjoy satirising our self-righteousness on a regular basis) but what would have been the alternative? To compete with Millwall for nastiness and play to 7,000 fans?

And those who won't spare a thought, let alone shed a tear, for the women's team in the name of focusing on the first team, are also being hypocritical. That free Premiership season ticket offer that was so hungrily snapped up, will be a drain on resources that could be used for new players. The club's cheap matchday ticket pricing generally is not typical of a true profit-maximising entity, nor are the wages and bonuses paid to the players and executives that were responsible for the shambles previously known as 'Season 06/07'. If football was only about seeking to win trophies, and not being part of something broader that we can all be proud of, wouldn't we all be Chelsea fans by now?

Yassin Moutaouakil

Exciting signing, good-looking lad, but how the hell do you pronounce his surname?

We've signed mystery young foreigners before(Gislason, Youga, etc..), but there's something about both this signing and Martin Christensen's, which gives me cause for optimism.

Firstly real cash has been handed over in both cases, implying greater credibility in their prospects. Second, they've both played Under-21 football for countries renowned for their young talent. Third, young hungry players will trump more seasoned types every time for me, not least because Charlton lacks the gravitas of bigger richer clubs (before long they're bemoaning the lack of film premieres).

Anyone expecting a panicky fire sale will have been disappointed so far. Moreover, the speed with which our four post-season signings have been made suggests plenty of preparatory work has been done, and we will surely benefit from their presence throughout the pre-season build-up. It all suggests lessons have been learned from last season.

However, after June 30th the door marked 'exit' will be the busier one, and whilst some moves have been 'telegraphed' but not yet confirmed (eg. El Karkouri, Rommedahl), the future of some other of our higher paid players is less clear-cut. The most obvious examples would appear to be Marcus Bent, Soulemayne Diawara, Luke Young, Darren Ambrose and Jerome Thomas. None are good enough to claim Premiership (or foreign equivalent) status as an absolute given, yet unlike Darren Bent, they are not highly coveted assets.

Those fringe players at the end of their contracts will simply be released. But in the case of some of the aforementioned, the club will have to weigh up the likelihood that opportunistic Premiership clubs seek to acquire him 'on the cheap', against the need to pay his wages in the even that no such lowball bid is acceptable.

Talking of lowball bids, Peter Varney has again been talking up Darren Bent's valuation to the media. I find it almost implausible that the club is laying out considerable money (by Championship standards) on new transfers (approx £3m already), whilst also insisting that there was a genuine chance Bent would still be a Charlton player next season.

In this context therefore, I was reminded of a recent random TV news segment concerning the ongoing chaos in the Florida property market. Their stories are sad ones, but the woman who proclaims that the developers promised not to sell properties, "...below their market value...," reminded me of Varney's comments about Bent. If you assume (as I do increasingly) that he will have to be sold, then our fixed 'market valuation' of him is an irrelevance, and our anchorage to it is illusory.

Press reports appear to claim that Spurs are interested in signing Bent, but are unwilling py £17m, and to be honest I'm not sure I blame them (Berbatov only cost them £10.9m). I fear and expect therefore, that the most likely outcome is that he is sold for say £10-12m in cash, with a player or two tacked onto the deal (Gardner, Murphy, Barnard etc..). A similar deal might conceivably be struck with Liverpool also of course. Cue attempts by the club to claim the total 'package' is still worth £17m, in order to placate those fans that Varney's comments were credible. Unfortunately, I don't believe they are.

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Finally, and more importantly New York Addick would like to send his sympathies to Charlton North Downs on the loss of his mother. He began his blog in April 2007 and has always said kind words about mine, but I was especially touched that he chose to mention it again at this difficult time.

I particularly enjoy CND's blog because, like Chicago Addick it combines knowledgeable pieces about Charlton, with enjoyable personal insights which in both cases I happen to find of interest (travel, tennis, music etc..). If you are not already reading one or both, I strongly recommend you begin doing so.

The most rewarding part of this blog has not so much been in the writing of it, but in the initiation of both face-to-face and email contact with tens of Charlton fans (from far flung corners of the globe) that I would never have come across otherwise, given my lack of roots in the South East London area.

As an essentially rational person, my obsession with Charlton leaves me open to claims of double standards but if I had to seek to 'rationalise' it, I would point to the way it continues to connect me with interesting people that I would not otherwise have come across. The Internet is good like that.

Goodnight Kish

The Charlton player about whom opinion was the most divided, has gone the opposite way to Paddy McCarthy and has joined Leicester City.

With the exception of some homegrown players (Fortune, Lisbie etc..), Kish was our longest serving player and deserves (and will surely receive) a warm welcome back to The Valley on 22nd September.

He was signed following promotion back to the Premiership in 2000, and although never especially comfortable or impressive initially at right-back, he nonetheless played a role in achieving 9th place that season.

Always a favourite of Curbs, he was gradually converted to right midfielder and then defensive holding midfielder, and it was in the latter role where he added the most value, doing the donkey work so the likes of Murphy or Jensen could strut their stuff.

He had an unfortunate habit of giving the ball away in a manner that led to goals, but it's perhaps the 'cost of doing business' in that position, unless you are Roy Keane or Claude Makelele (which he wasn't).

He was chosen for Alan Pardew's first game in charge against Fulham, but was substituted at half-time in the next game versus Villa, and then was equally guilty (alongwith ten others) for the diabolical performance at Forest in the Cup. Only two more substitute appearances followed, and he was last seen in a Charlton shirt at Fratton Park, coming on in the 83rd minute in typical fashion to ensure we ground out the result.

Despite the paucity of talent available to Pardew in central midfield, he clearly preferred the likes of Holland and Faye, so he was sent on loan to Leeds, a fate he probably ill-deserved.

Whilst lacking in natural talent and pace, he never lacked for effort and genuinely played as if he cared (because he did). A few more goals (he only managed two) might have been welcomed, but his Charlton career deserves to be looked back upon with fondness, because whilst never fully convincing the fans, he played a key role in our overachieving years in the Premiership.

Crossing Jordan

Thanks to Wyn Grant for providing a link to the full account of Mr Justice Tugendhat in the case of Crystal Palace FC (2000) Ltd and Iain Dowie.

For those with a spare hour it is well worth reading in full, because it provides rare and outstanding insights into the way football is actually conducted in this country. It also makes me thankful that I made that last-minute decision to study economics instead of law at university.

The clandestine phone calls, the secret meetings, the use of intermediaries who add little value, and the wanton way that money is spent seemingly without any sense of 'value', probably shouldn't come as a surprise to those of a cynical bent.

"Mr Jordan did provide discretionary benefits, and one which figured prominently in the dispute that has arisen is the provision of the cost of the air tickets for Mr Dowie to fly home to see his family on Saturday nights."

Why for example would a football manager earning £750,000 require additional 'discretionary' help paying for domestic air travel? If only such assistance were available to those fans paying £3 for programmes, and for overpriced tat in the club shop.

However throughout the lengthy verdict, I found myself generally sympathetic to Jordan's case, and for those Charlton fans who disagree, I would simply suggest that they substitute 'Jordan' for 'Murray', and 'Dowie' for 'Curbishley' throughout, and then question how we might have reacted had the shoe been on the other foot.

I suspect most of us recoil from Jordan's flash style and unfortunate tanning habit (and the fact that Palace are local rivals), rather than from his football values. But surely the relationship between Dowie and Jordan had not broken down to such an extent that a reasonable out-of-court settlement could not have been reached?

There were plenty of references throughout the verdict which surprised me but one really stood out (referring to the presentation given by Dowie during his interview):

"The fact that Mr Dowie arrived for interview with a laptop containing such a presentation made an impression on Mr Murray and others at Charlton."

Perhaps Murray has been in football too long, but should it really be 'impressive' that someone arrives for £1m+ pa job interview having done some prior preparation? I was half expecting to learn that the fact that Dowie wore a tie and arrived on time wowed the interviewers. Anyhow, if only we could all be privy to the 'Advancing the Addicks' presentation; the slide on transfer policy might have made for some interesting reading.

Interestingly, the said presentation was a rehash of one Dowie had previously used at a Derby County job interview, namely 'Reinvigorating the Rams.' It led me to an image of Dowie working feverishly into the early hours, eagerly weighing up whether the Rams should be 'reinvgorated', 'rejuvenated' or 'rebuilt.' And one wonders too what he had in mind for the Sky Blues of Coventry City......'stability' would be my best guess given when he joined them.

Charlton come out of the episode neither well nor badly. The compensation clause which is at the centre of the case was only ever an indirect consequence to them, even to the extent that they presumably would have been obliged to pay it had it not been torn up.

My only gripe perhaps concerns the speed with which they offered the job to Dowie, after Davies had procrastinated. It smacked a little of desperation, and it is not unreasonable to wonder whether Murray's personal loathing of Jordan might have played a small part. Then again, as the judge implied the club was not exactly inundated with serious offers, at least from those with the requisite qualifications (my application presumably failed on this technicality):

"All but twelve of the hundred or so applicants lacked the required experience."

The question left unanswered (in the verdict at least) is why Billy Davies chose to turn down the formal offer he was given. It appears likely that had he not done so, Dowie would have ended up at Derby, he'd have avoided an enormous legal bill, and we'd have likely stayed in the Premiership. If only the 'wee Scot' had known the potential 'ramifications' of his decision (no pun intended).

Charlton on Brink of Civil War

Newly relegated Charlton Athletic were rumoured to be on the brink of civil war last night, following the claimed victory of Alan Pardew's 'Hammers' over the incumbent 'Fatter' movement, led by midfielder Andy Reid.


Gazza's trip (above)

The 'Fatter' movement is thought to have been irreversibly damaged by the forced exile of influential member Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink. Indeed cult leader Reid has not been seen since January, and is presumed to have fled to Ireland.

Pardew's 'Hammers' movement believes in the literal and fundamental interpretation of 'match fitness', and as such all those who preach a more liberal philosophy are considered infidels.

"Reid will have to comply or he will be destroyed," admitted one observer, "...he can preach all he likes about the legacy of Ralph Milne, Peter Garland and Neil Redfearn, but times have changed."

Bent Over?

Darren Bent won't be joining West Ham after all. The clubs agreed a fee (believed to be £16m) but the player failed to agree personal terms. Given that West Ham are throwing money around like a council estate lottery winner, it is hard to believe wages were the issue. Perhaps he didn't fancy working under Curbs again? Or more likely, he probably looked at the quality of the players around him and concluded he could do better than midtable mediocrity.

Which therefore begs the question, are any clubs still interested and more importantly, are they able to meet the rather lofty valuation Charlton have placed on him? Spurs are clearly one possible bidder, but they won't pay silly money and understandably so, with Keane, Defoe, Mido and Berbatov already in place.

The 'big four' will probably fancy a player with European experience, particularly at that valuation, which probably only leaves perhaps Villa or Newcastle as a potential bidder, especially if Michael Owen's future lies elsewhere.

But therein lies the problem with Charlton's position. They are correct not to be giving him away Robert Lee-style, whilst the Ipswich share of the profits also leads to an inflated valuation (though this structural headache is an irrelevance to the buying club).

However, excellent footballer that he is, eventually his valuation reaches a 'tipping point' (perhaps £10-12m?) whereby only desperate (but rich) clubs will match it. If the player understandably has no desire to join a desperate club with grand ambitions (but little chance of achieving them), then in the absence of force, the valuation becomes a chimera.

Peter Varney has claimed this evening that, "We therefore look forward to Darren starting with us in the Championship next season, which is a massive boost to our chances of returning to the Premier League", but his credibility requires some rebuilding, and I'm inclined not to believe him.

There are two bad scenarios that we risk facing:

1. The 'Parker/Murphy' scenario: Bent and his agent suddenly push for a late transfer, and the club realising an unhappy player is of little value to us, are obliged to accept a lowball offer (perhaps £8-10m?). He seems the level-headed humble sort, but who has ever described an agent thus?

2. The disappointing season scenario: Bent stays but either through injury, lack of form or the inadequacies of his teammates (again), we fail to win promotion. Retaining the player at this point would become a financial impossibility, and you could slash his current valuation in half or more (David Nugent is only expected to generate £6m for Preston for example).

By anchoring ourselves to a £16m valuation, we may have decimated the list of potential interested bidders. His valuation is fluid, and whilst not quite 'forced sellers', we are certainly 'interested sellers.' Contemplating a lower bid is not capitulation; it's negotiation.

Of course the scenario we would all love to see played out, is a free-scoring Bent leading us back to the Premiership but football, like love never did run smooth. The stakes are simply too high to allow obstinance to forgo the chance to obtain a valuation that is perhaps not outstanding, but is nonetheless fair.

A Scunny Man

Scunthorpe at home. It was inevitable really wasn't it? The late Alan Latchley (aka Peter Cook) would surely have approved.

Traore: THE TRUTH

The disastrous signing of Djimi Traore, whose value fell by £1m in just five months, arguably epitomised Charlton's sorry season. In an attempt to explain how such a poor transfer decision could have been made, I stumbled across this amazing exhange of emails:


To: s.ibrahim@adb-aa.com
From: reg@cafc.co.uk
3 Aug 2006, 10.09am


Sounds gr8! The money is on its way.

Peter

ps - r u aware of Mr. Amdy Faye?

-------------------------
Sent from my Blackberry wireless handheld.

----------------
To: reg@cafc.co.uk
From: s.ibrahim@adb-aa.com
3 Aug 2006, 8.42am


TO: MR PETER VARNEY
FROM THE DESK OF: MR SULEMAN IBRAHIM
AUDITING AND ACCOUNTING SECTION
AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (A.D.B.)
BAMAKO
MALI

RE: MR DJIMI TRAORE

I AM MR. SULEMAN IBRAHIM, THE DIRECTOR IN CHARGE OF AUDITING AND ACCOUNTING SECTION OF AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT BANK (A.D.B.), BAMAKO, MALI.

WITH DUE RESPECT AND REGARD, I HAVE DECIDED TO CONTACT YOU ON A BUSINESS TRANSACTION THAT WILL BE VERY BENEFICIAL TO BOTH OF US AT THE END OF THE TRANSACTION. THIS MESSAGE MAY MEET YOU UTMOST SURPRISE, HOWEVER IT IS MY URGENT NEED FOR FOREIGN PARTNER THAT MADE ME CONTACT YOU FOR THIS TRANSACTION.

DURING OUR INVESTIGATION AND AUDITING, MY DEPARTMENT CAME ACROSS MR DJIMI TRAORE WHO HAS BEEN LYING DORMANT SINCE RETURNING FROM ISTANBUL IN 2005, WITHOUT ANY CLAIM EITHER FROM HIS FAMILY OR RELATION BEFORE OUR DISCOVERY TO THIS DEVELOPMENT.

AS IT MAY INTEREST YOU TO KNOW, I GOT YOUR IMPRESSIVE INFORMATION THROUGH THE MALI CHAMBER OF COMMERCE (SPORTS DEPT). THEY HAVE INFORMED ME THAT 'VALLEY EXPRESS' MAY SOON BE ARRIVED HERE IN BAMAKO? IT MAY ADVISED UPON YOU THAT TRAFFIC IS NOTORIOUS, AND ALSO HEAVY; PLEASE ALLOW SUFFICIENT TIME.

I WILL NOT FAIL TO INFORM YOU THAT THIS TRANSACTION IS 100% RISK FREE. UPON DEPOSITING THE SUM OF £2M (TWO MILLION) POUNDS, AND UPON SMOOTH CONCLUSION OF THIS TRANSACTION, YOU WILL BE ENTITLED TO 35% OF THE TOTAL SUM AS GRATIFICATION, WHILE 65% WILL BE FOR ME AND MY PARTNERS.

PLEASE, YOU HAVE BEEN ADVISED TO KEEP THIS TRANSACTION AS "TOP SECRET" AS I AM STILL IN SERVICE AND INTEND TO RETIRE FROM SERVICE AFTER WE CONCLUDE THIS DEAL WITH YOU. INSTEAD PLEASE ARRANGE TO INFORM AGENT 'RED NAP' (CODENAME: 'ARRY) THAT SAID TRANSACTION WAS COMPLETE.

I WILL BE MONITORING THE WHOLE SITUATION HERE IN THIS BANK UNTIL YOU CONFIRM THE MONEY IN YOUR ACCOUNT AND ASK ME TO COME DOWN TO YOUR COUNTRY FOR SUBSEQUENT SHARING OF THE FUND ACCORDING TO PERCENTAGES PREVIOUSLY INDICATED AND FURTHER INVESTMENT, EITHER IN YOUR COUNTRY OR ANY COUNTRY YOU ADVICE US TO INVEST IN. ALL OTHER NECESSARY VITAL NFORMATION WILL BE SENT TO YOU WHEN I HEAR FROM YOU.

UP THE ADDICTS!

YOURS SINCERELY

MR SULEMAN IBRAHIM

PS - MR DJIMI TRAORE CAN ALSO OPERATE IN 3-5-2 FORMATION AS WINGED BACK.

Swindon away

There's nothing quite like a First Round Carling Cup draw to bring you back to earth with a bump. I'm not sure why they needed to remind us that we were no longer in the Premiership fully two months before the tie will take place, but nonetheless it's Swindon away.

The County Ground has fond memories for me - I took a lucky girl to her first Charlton game there on 1 Mar 1997, and she subsequently became my wife. Poetically perhaps, Charlton lost 1-0 and played horribly, before we headed back to Bath where we were spending the weekend. My insistence that it was a mere coincidence that Charlton were playing nearby, sounded as hollow then as it does now. Moreover if I had told her then that in almost exactly ten years time she'd be fathering my child and giving him the middle name Charlton, she'd have headed back home down the M4 quicker than you could say 'Wayne Allison' (and rightly so).

The last time we played away to Swindon in the League Cup was in the Second Round in Sep 1994, an impressive 3-1 victory sealed by a stunning David Whyte volley in the 85th minute. In true Charlton fashion however, we screwed up the second leg at the Valley.

For those keen to compare and contrast the depth and quality of that Charlton team compared to today's, we lined up as follows: Petterson, Brown, Sturgess, Balmer, Chapple, Walsh, Garland, Newton, Robson, Whyte, Nelson. A number of those players set the foundations for our subsequent decade of overachievement, and having just returned to the Valley, it was a special time to be a Charlton fan, for me at least.

I'm intending to be back in the UK for most of August, and was hoping to attend every game that I could home and away. It was thus with childlike excitement that I was leafing through Great Western Train timetables to plan the trip (an easy one in fairness), conscious that the likelihood of Sky TV coverage might test my supposed commitment.

I will also be observing the release of the Championship fixtures tomorrow keener than most, hoping that our August away games are a balance between those clubs that are easy to get to, and those that I'll be able to get a ticket for (Colchester for example probably fails on the latter count).

Texas Water Safari

(not Charlton related)

Requests for sponsorship are 'two a penny' (and that's usually how much I can afford to donate these days), but a good friend (let's call him Tim, because that's his name) is currently undertaking a mission which was genuinely worthy of my support.

He is part of a six-man British team which represents the first foreign attempt at the Texas Water Safari, known as the 'World's Toughest Boat Race.' Any boat taking part must navigate 262 miles of treacherous water (without a motor), and must begin the race with all the provisions required for the trip, other than ice and water. Their short blog is here.

The journey time (for those fortunate enough to finish), is up to one hundred hours, and any sleep must be undertaken en route. As well as highly unpredictable river conditions, participants have to contend with alligators and fire ants, as well as dehydration brought on by the searing Texan heat, and hallucinations generated by lack of sleep. Most teams don't finish, but not for want of trying.

Given that we are expected to sponsor people these days for merely hauling their fat backsides out of bed and running 5km, I'm pleased to be able to highlight a genuine sacrifice in the name of 'charridee'.

McCarthy-ism

Charlton have completed their third signing since the end of the season, capturing Leicester City's captain, Patrick 'Paddy' McCarthy for £650,000.

My fanatical Leicester-supporting friend describes him as a, "...no-nonsense-get-your-bloody-head-on-it-at-any-cost.." type of defender, but also as a bit of a hothead (7 yellows and a red card in an injury-disrupted 06/07 season).

It's been a while since we had a defender who fit that category; Steve Brown was probably the last, and he was very comfortable (and effective) at Championship level. Pards knows what it takes to get out of the division and he is implicitly acknowledging we will need to compete physically in order to have a chance.

With Varney, Iwelumo and McCarthy snapped up already, and with the signings of Chris Dickson and Martin Christensen secured last season, our squad is beginning to shape up though further clarity on who is leaving would be helpful. It's increasingly clear that we will not feel any sudden rush of excitement for a while upon hearing of a new signing, but frankly I recall virtually jumping out of my seat upon learning of Rommedahl's capture, and look how far he got us.

London 2012 - Logo Revealed

Lord Coe was forced to deny reports that the bizarre new London 2012 logo was designed by a young child, after the words, "James, Aged 4" were reportedly spotted in the bottom right-hand corner.

"We didn't expect it to be universally liked" admitted Coe, "...but over time people will appreciate the logo portrays London perfectly....overpriced, increasingly segregated and impossible to navigate."

"Moreover, following the Wembley debacle, the logo does not explicitly mention '2012' which we consider to be an unrealistic goal."

Outgoing PM Tony Blair however expressed his support. "I am confident we will host a wonderful Olympics, and show the world everything that's great about the Polish people."

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STOP PRESS: Water shortages may force cancellation of the swimming events. "50m Freestyle" provisionally renamed, "Barefoot Downhill Sprint Wearing Trunks."

Roll Up, Roll Up

Roll Up, Roll Up! It's the Great English Football Club Sale!

- Consistently underperforming club in deprived part of the country, and without a major domestic trophy since 1955? Just £133m!

- Perennially outshone club with inordinate managerial turnover, who played in English football's third tier just seven seasons ago? Just £100m!

EVERYTHING MUST GO!


English football clubs are changing hands at unprecedented rates, and at unheard of prices. In the past year alone Liverpool, Villa, West Ham, and Sunderland have been sold, whilst bid speculation continues to circulate around Man City, Newcastle and Arsenal.

An alien arriving in England, and viewing the feverish activity would presumably conclude that something drastic must have occurred. In at least one sense they would be correct; the Premiership TV deal announced in May 2006 saw BSkyB and Setanta agree to pay over £1.7bn over three seasons, beginning 2007/08. Charlton's relegation could not have been so poorly timed it seems.

As someone who believes that markets are somewhat efficient (or at least tending towards efficiency), it is thus reasonable to conclude that the football club investors have rationally assessed the value of the new TV deal, and incorporated it into the price they would pay. So long as their teams were not relegated during 2006/07, those readies would begin flooding in, and voila, the investment would make sense. It was not for nothing that Eggert Magnusson looked so terrified during the final weeks; conspiracy theory anyone?

But as someone who has a reasonable grounding in investment, then amongst the middling Premiership clubs, the amounts paid seem extravagant, even taking into account the new TV deal. Alan Sugar called it the 'prune juice effect' - it goes in and comes straight back out again (into the hands of players and their agents). Or alternatively, to steal some wisdom from another notoriously unprofitable industry, Richard Branson taught us that the fastest way to become a millionaire was to start as a billionaire, then to buy an airline.

Thus I am inclined to think that one of three factors are at work (or some combination thereof):

1. Investors are extrapolating even higher TV deals in the future (unexpectedly high).
2. Investors intend to tap previously unchartered income sources (or less realistically, to reduce costs)
3. Investors view football clubs as 'positional goods', and thus as an ultra-luxury hobby.

It is certainly possible that the prices paid for TV coverage over the next three seasons are merely the tip of the iceberg, albeit improbable in my view. BSkyB for example generated total revenues of £4.0bn in 2005, and net profits of £425m with 76% of their income generated by TV subscriptions. Whilst the security of the Premiership rights drives some additional sales, the scope for further material increases in broadcasting rights, in the absence of punishing subscription price rises, is unclear.

There has been a tendency to view Sky's payment for football rights as being a temporary 'loss leader' during its quest for domination of the UK's digital TV market. As of June 2006, BSkyB had 8.1m direct satellite subscribers, and was providing 3.9m further non-BSkyB subscribers with Sky channels. In a country of just 25m households, the penetration of both digital TV generally and BSkyB specifically is pretty well-established. With the market effectively won, it is unclear whether the Premiership's overwhelming reliance upon a single powerful customer will be a sensible strategy. Who would you back around the negotiating table in 2010? Richard Scudamore or Rupert Murdoch?

The impact of foreign television rights has become more important. In Jan 2007, it was confirmed that the Premiership had sold rights overseas for the next three seasons, for a total of £625m. Speaking only from personal anecdotal experience, in my opinion when commentators wax lyrical about the global appeal of the Premiership, they really only mean Manchester United and Liverpool, and to a lesser extent, Chelsea and Arsenal. In New York for example where there is a solid underbelly of support for 'soccer', the local pub was rammed for Liverpool vs Manchester United, yet strangely quiet (deserted) for Charlton vs Reading.

It is well-known that the big clubs would like to negotiate their own television rights. For example in New York, the Sportsnet New York channel which largely broadcasts live coverage of the New York Mets, is co-owned by Time Warner, Comcast and of course, the New York Mets. The Premiership is ultimately fighting a losing battle in its 'all for one' approach to negotiating TV rights; the rights to watch Manchester United are potentially worth billions; those to watch Charlton are almost worthless. And the clubs know it (and so it appears did the Glazer family).

The second possibility in my view, concerns the development of previously untapped (or undertapped) income sources. It is difficult to imagine that admission prices could be raised much further, particularly in a softening consumer economy, without threatening to reduce total revenues. Corporate hospitality is a well-worn source, and again in the bifurcated Premiership, inviting a client to the Wigan fixture is a polite way to terminate a corporate relationship.

Sponsorship and branding partnerships (credit cards etc..) are also well-travelled paths, and again with the exception of the big handful of clubs, what are such marketing partnerships really worth? For example if Newcastle United have perhaps 200,000 UK-based supporters who would declare an allegiance, surely this is small fry compared to those (temporarily) obsessed by Big Brother or the X-Factor.

One area of potential untapped income would perhaps be the club websites. Internet advertising is clearly a hot sector right now, and I wouldn't claim to be able to calculate what they could be worth, except to observe that it all feels a little bit 'like 1999' as Prince might have said. It is also notable (not surprisingly from my standpoint) that football club-oriented blogs have grown in popularity, and I am probably not alone in having the official Charlton website along way down my priority list, almost to the extent of rarely looking at it. If you want to 'play' the Internet theme, just buy Google, not a football club.

As far as potentially cutting costs, it's a non-starter aside perhaps from some administrative fat; talent industries simply don't work that way. Just witness the bloated salaries not only in football, but in movies, fashion and finance. No football fan will ever accept a second-grade striker if they know their club could afford Thierry Henry. And just as the big clubs know that their revenue potential is enormous, so too do the best players.

The third possibility concerns the topic of 'positional goods'. A 'positional good' is one whose value is mainly measured in comparison with possible substitutes (as opposed to a 'material good'). In other words, their value is best understood in a 'relative' sense not an absolute one. In the case of football clubs, the concept of a 'positional good' is best understood in terms of, "...they don't make them anymore." Coastal waterfront is a 'positional good'; likewise access to an exclusive members club, or a Picasso painting. If you want to buy a football club, you have to buy one already in existence; you can't just create one.

This possibility makes the most sense to me, especially in the current euphoric economic environment. Global interest rates are low, economic growth is strong and credit creation is at extraordinary (ie. dangerous) levels. All of that money sloshing around has to find a home somewhere, and if you are a billionaire satiated by 'material goods', and scared off from the lofty levels of financial assets, why not tuck into some tasty 'positional goods'?

By definition, 'positional goods' cannot be valued using normal metrics. If you share my view that all but the biggest football clubs are inherently unprofitable, then like a piece of art (or a UK buy-to-let property), they have a 'negative cost of carry' (owning them generates cash outflows, unlike a bond for example). During the year to 30 June 2006 for example, Chelsea lost £80.2m, having lost £140m during the previous equivalent period.

If the new club owners intend to own them in perpetuity, then like Roman Abramovich, they might need extraordinarily deep pockets (though Chelsea is an extreme example). Alternatively, if they intend to sell it on to a greater fool for a profit in the future then they will need to hope that a) the current global asset boom does not roll over, and b) their club is not relegated (see below).

A key difference between say a Picasso painting and a Premiership football club, is that the former will always be a Picasso (and he's definitely not making any more of them), whilst a Premiership club might conceivably be a Championship club.....or a League One club. And at least when as Picasso owner accidentally elbows his artwork, he has some reasonable recourse to an insurance company.

Meanwhile, perhaps 12 or 13 Premiership clubs will begin next season with a non-negligible chance of relegation, a scenario which would see potential valuations plummet. I'm not sure that insuring against relegation is even permitted (I suspect it isn't), but even if it were, the premiums would be extortionate.

The word 'bubble' is bandied around haphazardly, and if you believed everything you read, one could point to bubbles everywhere from Chinese stocks to modern art, and from UK property to emerging market debt. But I am struggling to escape the conclusion that the current football club frenzy is indeed a genuine bubble, blown up by a 'wall of money' and exhuberant assumptions. The fear should be that the buyers will come and go, the players will take their exhorbitant salaries, and the fans of the beloved clubs (whose very permanence was so attractive) will be left to pick up the pieces. To repeat the most valuable words ever said about investing, "It's never different."