Bent Over?

Darren Bent won't be joining West Ham after all. The clubs agreed a fee (believed to be £16m) but the player failed to agree personal terms. Given that West Ham are throwing money around like a council estate lottery winner, it is hard to believe wages were the issue. Perhaps he didn't fancy working under Curbs again? Or more likely, he probably looked at the quality of the players around him and concluded he could do better than midtable mediocrity.

Which therefore begs the question, are any clubs still interested and more importantly, are they able to meet the rather lofty valuation Charlton have placed on him? Spurs are clearly one possible bidder, but they won't pay silly money and understandably so, with Keane, Defoe, Mido and Berbatov already in place.

The 'big four' will probably fancy a player with European experience, particularly at that valuation, which probably only leaves perhaps Villa or Newcastle as a potential bidder, especially if Michael Owen's future lies elsewhere.

But therein lies the problem with Charlton's position. They are correct not to be giving him away Robert Lee-style, whilst the Ipswich share of the profits also leads to an inflated valuation (though this structural headache is an irrelevance to the buying club).

However, excellent footballer that he is, eventually his valuation reaches a 'tipping point' (perhaps £10-12m?) whereby only desperate (but rich) clubs will match it. If the player understandably has no desire to join a desperate club with grand ambitions (but little chance of achieving them), then in the absence of force, the valuation becomes a chimera.

Peter Varney has claimed this evening that, "We therefore look forward to Darren starting with us in the Championship next season, which is a massive boost to our chances of returning to the Premier League", but his credibility requires some rebuilding, and I'm inclined not to believe him.

There are two bad scenarios that we risk facing:

1. The 'Parker/Murphy' scenario: Bent and his agent suddenly push for a late transfer, and the club realising an unhappy player is of little value to us, are obliged to accept a lowball offer (perhaps £8-10m?). He seems the level-headed humble sort, but who has ever described an agent thus?

2. The disappointing season scenario: Bent stays but either through injury, lack of form or the inadequacies of his teammates (again), we fail to win promotion. Retaining the player at this point would become a financial impossibility, and you could slash his current valuation in half or more (David Nugent is only expected to generate £6m for Preston for example).

By anchoring ourselves to a £16m valuation, we may have decimated the list of potential interested bidders. His valuation is fluid, and whilst not quite 'forced sellers', we are certainly 'interested sellers.' Contemplating a lower bid is not capitulation; it's negotiation.

Of course the scenario we would all love to see played out, is a free-scoring Bent leading us back to the Premiership but football, like love never did run smooth. The stakes are simply too high to allow obstinance to forgo the chance to obtain a valuation that is perhaps not outstanding, but is nonetheless fair.