Swansea Preview

Charlton news during the summer has tended to be fleeting, yet almost consistently depressing.

Departures have been regular and often surprising; promised signings are notable by their absence.

Just as any empathetic person would therefore, a couple of weeks ago I decided that I could no longer witness Charlton's decline from afar, and thus purchased return air tickets to London, and match tickets for Swansea, Yeovil and Watford. All being well, I will thus be there in person on Saturday to comfort the club in its time of need.

The Kubler-Ross model of grief acceptance describes five key stages in the process, and it has probably taken me until this week to reach the all-important final one:

1. Denial: "We'll still have one of the strongest squads; after all we were a Premiership club until 2007."

2. Anger: "It's all the fault of that Chappell bloke. Where the hell has the money gone?"

3. Bargaining: "Reaching the play-offs would still be a good season."

4. Depression: "We'll be just like Leicester last season. We're doomed."

5. Acceptance: "We have played the bulk of our post-War football in the second tier, but today we've a great stadium, a decent manager and a sensible Board."

So I've accepted the new reality of Charlton in 2008/9. Reality is the key word, because it's not a question of optimism or pessimism.

Reality tells me that beginning the season with two central defenders is suboptimal. Reality tells me that it's unlikely that all of our youngsters will flourish at the same time (but equally, some of them will flourish nevertheless).

Reality tells me that there are at least six teams better than us this season, but vitally considerably more than three that are worse (so let's not panic). Reality tells me that winning 6 of our last 24 Championship games last season does not bode well, given that our squad is surely weaker now.

Reality also most importantly tells me that failing to take the necessary steps to cut the club's budget may lead to oblivion. We've been there once before, and there's no great desire to return.

The last teams to win automatic promotion back to the Premiership two seasons after relegation (as opposed to one), was WBA last season, and Sunderland in 2004/5, so it can be done. Notably however, they had finished 4th and 3rd respectively during that interim season. Blackburn also managed the same feat in 2000/01, after they got relegated with us in 1998/99. Interestingly they finished 11th in their interim season, the same place we occupied last season.

However in short, teams that win promotion to the Premiership typically either bounce straight back, or much like us in 1997/98, emerge somewhat out of the blue thanks to some combination of a smart manager and/or rich benefactor (think Fulham, Reading, Wigan, Portsmouth etc..).

Indeed, if one wants to get very depressed, consider that the bottom two divisions today contain fully six teams that have played in the Premier League since its foundation in 1992/93 (Oldham, Bradford, Leicester, Leeds, MK Dons and Swindon).

This season's Championship meanwhile will contain sixteen teams that have tasted the Premier League (all except Preston, Plymouth, Doncaster, Swansea, Cardiff, Blackpool, Burnley and Bristol City).

Thus if our minds occasionally drift longingly for those halcyon Premiership days, then we are presumably in good company. Strangely I find that a rather comforting thought.

Swansea might be described as having completed a 25-year transition period, but now find themselves in a new (and typically bland) stadium, and with a young exciting and apparently very capable foreign manager at the helm. Interviewed in last weekend's Sunday Times, Roberto Martinez assured readers his team will try to play football, so we shouldn't fear the kick and rush style that we struggled against last season.

After our disappointing opening game against Scunthorpe last season, this was not the type of fixture I wanted to see again, with the Swans cheered on by 3,000+ of their own expectant fans, ensuring it will feel more akin to a Cup tie (and we know how we fare in those).

With less than 72 hours to go until kick-off, the chances of any surprise last-minute signings look increasingly remote. I would thus expect us to line up as follows: Weaver, Semedo, Youga, Hudson, Fortune, Racon, Shelvey, Thomas, Sam, Varney, Gray. Subs: Elliott, Basey, Faye, Fleetwood, Sinclair.

NY Addick predicts: Charlton 1 (Varney), Swansea 0. Att: 21, 932.