MK Dons preview

After a depressing week in which we exited tamely from two Cup competitions (thus completing the season's trio of exits to supposedly ‘lesser teams’), the focus returns to League One.

The optimists amongst the Charlton faithful, are willing to look through two months of poor form, and maintain that the league table doesn’t lie.

However there is a gang of half a dozen or so teams right behind us, and defeat on Saturday will not only see us exit the promotion spots for the first time, but could conceivably leave us just a two point cushion from 7th place.

Each of Norwich, Huddersfield and Colchester face straightforward looking home games and are all in form, with the Us notably in a position to leapfrog us too. The table may indeed not lie, but it can sometimes be economical with the truth.

It has been a strange season so far. As I’ve mentioned many times before, those first six games were won in style but now with hindsight it is clear that the stability of those eleven players was vital, whilst the fixture list was kind too.

The six defeated sides are currently placed 24th, 23rd, 18th, 16th, 12th and 11th respectively. As Manchester United proved last season however, beating the lousy teams is often enough to achieve glory (they dropped only 11 points in their 32 matches against teams outside the top four).

However that argument rather falls apart when you consider points we recently dropped against the likes of Gillingham (19th) and Carlisle (15th).

The problems can be traced back to the first enforced change (Spring for Semedo) to that eleven which started the first eight matches.

We beat Exeter that day, but three days later got walloped in embarrassing fashion at Colchester (which was the catalyst for the first ‘voluntary’ change, namely Sodje for Llera in the goalless draw at Leeds).

Parkinson reverted to 4-4-2 for the first time at home to Huddersfield (and it appeared to have worked), but we were fortunate to earn a draw with the formation at Gillingham, and the three consecutive defeats then followed even after reverting back to 4-5-1 at Northwich.

The injuries to Rob Elliot and Fraser Richardson were particularly ill-timed, although the decision to instantly replace both with loan signings may have rocked the boat unnecessarily. Certainly Darren Randolph must feel particularly aggrieved having patiently sat on the bench week after week.

So where does all that leave us? Surely the key to 4-5-1 is maintaining possession and waiting for gaps to appear which the likes of Shelvey and Racon can exploit.

As decent as his hold-up play is for example, long balls up to a solitary Deon Burton (or whoever) do not play to the formation’s strengths. There was too much of this on show during both recent Cup games.

Meanwhile, the 4-5-1 surely also works best when it is balanced so that play can be switched just as naturally to the left, as to the right.

However Nicky Bailey is a right-footer playing on the left, and certainly no winger whatever flank he is on. We thus seek to utilize Lloyd Sam disproportionately (a threat easily snuffed out by doubling up on him).

Unfortunately I suspect Parkinson has concluded that given a thin squad of variable quality, it is preferable to be slightly unbalanced than leave any of his genuine class on the bench (ie. Racon, Bailey or Shelvey).

He has experimented with 4-4-2 (by dropping Shelvey), but he has not yet experimented with 4-5-1 but also dropping one of that esteemed trio. In terms of natural left-sided players, Parkinson can opt for one of Leon McKenzie, Luke Holden or Grant Basey.

McKenzie would be the most attacking of the options (but more importantly, he’s perhaps not yet fully fit). Perhaps ideal as a substitute option to maintain the formation, but add greater forward impetus if required.

Basey often comes in for some rather unfair criticism given his lack of pace, but he is hard-working, possesses a very capable left-foot, and his more defensive nature provides a nice counterbalance to the more cavalier Sam.

However most interestingly, perhaps it is young Luke Holden who deserves to be thrown right in at the deep end. His cross for McKenzie’s goal on Wednesday night was a peach, and vitally was delivered with his left-foot. When a team lacks confidence, it’s often those players least affected by it who can offer something productive.

On the website, Parky has cryptically said, “I look at Nick as a captain who inspires people with his performances. He needs to get back to that on Saturday. Whether it's in a different position, all will be revealed at three o'clock.” It seems as though he’s thinking along the same lines; I think the time has come for a change.

However enough rambling about Charlton, what about MK Dons? Charlton have two ex-players in their squad (Llera and McLeod), and they must still be chuckling about the time Alan Pardew called up and bid for their forward. They must have thought the decimal point was in the wrong place.

The whole ‘Franchise FC’ debate is beginning to fade, not least given the romantic story emerging at AFC Wimbledon (which stands for ‘A Fan’s Club’ incidentally).

My view is that the old Wimbledon would undoubtedly have gone out of business by now, given their tiny support, large debts and lack of a stadium. Had this occurred in the ‘natural’ way, I would imagine that there would not have been the impetus for AFC Wimbledon’s formation.

Thus in order to be horrified by what led to the MK Dons, I think one has to both support the idea that a club cannot simply be parachuted into a new area (the ‘franchise’ concept), and support the view that it would have been preferable for Wimbledon simply to have gone bust.

I can certainly relate to the first argument (which goes against the whole concept of a League pyramid), but the second makes no sense to me.

However once the FA approved the move, Wimbledon fans had a choice either to drive up the M1 to watch MK Dons, or get behind the new AFC venture. Importantly, at least they had a choice.

The idea that their club had been ‘stolen’ was irrelevant because there would very soon no longer have been a club at all.

Not surprisingly most opted for the latter, whilst contrary to the expectations of some and putting aside any distaste about how they got there, the whole MK Dons project has been a clear success on and off the pitch (average attendances better than Millwall, not a high bar admittedly).

I consider it to be a win-win situation (because of my argument above that it was only the existence of MK Dons which galvanized the Wimbledon fans to rebuild a club from scratch).

And finally, if you support the concept of a League pyramid, how come AFC Wimbledon magically ended up in Combined Counties League Premier Division, and not its Division One? Or a lower league for that matter?

Whilst you ponder that, I’m going to suggest Parky will line Charlton up as follows: Randolph, Richardson, Youga, Dailly, Sodje, Bailey, Racon, Semedo, McKenzie, Sam, Burton. Subs: Ikeme, Llera, Basey, Shelvey, Spring, Mooney, Holden.

NY Addick predicts: Charlton 2 (Burton, Sodje), MK Dons 0. Att: 15,933.