Tuesday, January 24, 2006

Swede FA

At last, the FA has managed to nudge Eriksson aside. Perhaps someone dared to actually look at his record, compared it to his payslip and wondered how they got themselves in this mess in the first place. Judging from some of his supporters, you might think it is only his personal indiscretions that have seen him get the chop. But a closer examination of his record shows he is no more successful (or unsuccessful) than previous managers, particularly when assessed based upon the quality of players the clubs are bringing through.

I suppose we should be grateful that Howard Wilkinson never got the job on a permanent basis. Upon hearing the news of Eriksson's plan to leave after the World Cup, he remarked, "His record as manager of the England team has been excellent," before adding, "We have got a fantastic group of players," as if somehow Eriksson was responsible for that, as opposed to Wenger, Ferguson, Mourinho, Houllier, Benitez etc..

It is hard to argue with the view that England currently possess the best group of players, certainly since 1990 and perhaps since 1966 (when, to be fair, international competition was somewhat less fierce than it is today). Just to put it in context, the team that Kevin Keegan put out during his final game against Germany included such world-class players as Nick Barmby, Martin Keown, Andrew Cole, Gareth Southgate and Graeme Le Saux. And before anyone suggests that Keegan's team selection was the problem, his outfield options on the bench comprised Gareth Barry, Kieron Dyer, Dennis Wise, Kevin Phillips, Ray Parlour, and Emile Heskey.

Eriksson did a reasonable job of qualifying for the World Cup after that poor start, but we still required a last minute free-kick to ensure automatic qualification. The 5-1 win over Germany was good fun of course, but who had the last laugh? Germany as usual, going on to finish runners-up, whilst England limped out in a winnable quarter-final against the eventual winners.

Indeed, being drawn in the 2002 'group of death' (with Sweden, Argentina and Nigeria) was the only time the gods of the draw have failed to shine upon Eriksson. The Euro 2004 qualifiers saw us pitched against Slovakia, Macedonia, Liechtenstein, and Turkey whilst the finals saw us in pitched against a fading France, and two poor sides (Switzerland and Croatia). Despite this, we contrived to lose a game against France, and then he failed in his next 'test' failing to remove his captain Beckham after an anonymous performance against Portugal, a challenge that his counterpart Luiz Scolari didn't shy from. The team that won the tournament (Greece) had a fraction of our talent, but multiples of our organisation and tactical nous.

The World Cup qualifying group for 2006 was clearly the weakest of all, yet we were still humiliated in Belfast and failed to put together a single performance which might have suggested to fans that he could actually direct his talented squad to glory in Germany.

And then of course there is his bizarre use of friendly matches, of which perhaps the Australia game at Upton Park was the ultimate example. More recently he gave Andy Johnson 29 minutes at right midfield which must been a particularly worthwhile endeavour for both Johnson and Eriksson.

Remember this is the highest paid football manager in the world. Everything he 'achieved' should have been a given with the talent at his disposal. He has failed every time he's been genuinely tested and has erroneously been given one more chance to succeed. With the exception of left-midfield, we have nearly a complete team which goes into the World Cup as second favourites. Eriksson has been fortunate to have been manager just as the likes of Rooney, Cole, Gerrard, Lampard, Ferdinand, and Terry were emerging and thriving for their clubs, and it's a sporting tragedy that there's every chance they won't fulfil their potential in Germany.

Now all the talk is about his replacement with Curbishley variously close to favourite or second favourite with the bookies. Betfair which usually provides the most accurate assessment of the true probabilities currently has some bets available at 7/1 which sounds about right. As I stated in my last post, the big issue for me is not necessarily his managerial shortcomings (other than Mourinho perhaps, who doesn't have those?), but the fact that the media would be overwhelmingly negative from the beginning implying he would get virtually no time to find his feet. It is possible they could try to pair him up with someone more experienced, but the same could be said about Alladyce (whose record is arguably better) or McLaren (whose record is clearly worse). Either way, I just can't see it happening and again I reiterate that Newcastle is a far more likely next work location for Curbs than Soho Square.

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