Stayaway Fans

According to an industry-wide survey conducted by Virgin Money, a disturbingly high percentage of fans are not proposing to renew their season tickets for next season. Most blamed the rising costs of attendance or the poor quality of football on display.

Perhaps their most surprising conclusion is that 19% of Man Utd fans are not renewing (apparently because of costs). Now given that United fans have been the target of perhaps the industry's most concerted merchandising and branding campaign ever, it would seem to be highly surprising if they suddenly took fright now, despite last season's disappointment. However if true, it suggests that Chelsea's sudden stranglehold on the Premier League title is beginning to bore even the fans of the one club able to realistically challenge them right now, which should send alarm bells ringing from Sky to Soho Square.

My suspicions are that Virgin Money should probably stick to financial services and leave polling to Gallup, Mori and the like because 19% of Man Utd non-renewers sounds way too high. However in fairness, their estimates of non-renewers for some lesser clubs such as Villa (31%), Wolves (28%), Southampton (27%) and Birmingham (18%) are likely very realistic. The Chairmen of some underperforming clubs will begin to urgently realise that they may have killed the goose (ie. fans) that laid the golden egg (ie. bought season tickets) by continually over-charging for an inferior product. Many will be praying that some rousing performances by the national team in Germany will deliver the type of post-Euro 1996 mania that would temporarily boost fan interest again.

It's a shame they did not seem to poll any Charlton fans because the results would have been interesting. Charlton's situation is a little different because many fans are awaiting confirmation of the new manager before deciding whether to renew following last season's frustrations. I firmly believe that had Curbs stayed, we could have seen similar 25-30% type reductions in renewals. As it stands, if the club makes a progressive appointment then 5-10% is more likely in my view.

Anecdotally however, of the group of ten seats that myself, my Dad and some friends occupy in the West Lower, it seems as if less than half will be renewed at this stage. We have typically shared a few spare tickets in order to invite various friends and clients, but interestingly it is getting harder to persuade people to watch Premiership football for free let alone persuade them to part with hard-earned cash, unless the opposition happens to be one of the Big Four.

Peter Varney is clearly aware of the problem of Premiership competitiveness (or lack thereof), and its concurrent effect on season ticket sales and TV viewing figures, because he has talked about it in the past. Hence I am surprised that the club continues to press ahead with plans to expand The Valley particularly in light of the team's current failings and the uncertainty over the ability of the new manager to turn them around. The very existence of thousands of new seats could paradoxically reduce attendances as current season-ticket holders choose not to renew, confident in their ability to procure tickets for any match on an individual basis. Indeed, I wonder if there is any evidence that the expansion of Old Trafford to 76,000 has caused the same effect?

It would seem to make more sense to put The Valley plans firmly on hold and to re-assess the club's position in two years' time when the new manager (assuming he lasted that long) will have left his mark, for better or worse. Admittedly the building of new capacity has a long lead time but pressing head with new supply just as demand is falling spells potential disaster. Varney should brush up on his knowledge of 1990s golf courses in Japan or (dare I predict) today's Florida condominiums before assuming supply will create its own demand.

Talking of economics, I recently met with a investment manager who owns a hefty chunk of the shares of Celtic, a contrarian view for sure given that most rational returns-oriented investors have steered well clear of the sector recently. In his view, football tickets are the ultimate 'Giffen good', a rare example of something for which demand rises as the price rises, which are strangely perhaps often prevalent in a slowing economy. The Virgin Money survey would suggest otherwise of course, but in his view fans would sooner give up on virtually all non-essential consumption before giving up their precious season tickets. In the case of Charlton however, perhaps he didn't bargain on the so-called 'Bryan Hughes phenomenon' which makes an afternoon's window shopping with the wife positively appealing in comparison.