Hornet's Nest

The idea of 'must win' games is a little overdramatic although those Charlton fans making their way to The Valley on Saturday may argue otherwise. To suggest that a draw or defeat against Watford implies imminent relegation or the end of Iain Dowie's short reign is just plain silly.

We probably need to generate say nine wins and eight draws from our remaining thirty games to be safe, so that allows a cushion potentially of thirteen or so more losses. Obviously we are more likely to reach our safety objective if we take the opportunity to beat the weakest teams in the division, but we are bound to have a surprise win at some point, and we won't be describing that game ex ante as a 'must lose' fixture.

I'm being surprisingly sanguine about it because it will be a far tougher game than many of us perhaps expect. Moreover if it's a 'must win' game for us, what is it for them as they hunt for their first victory? And of course, we can't both prevail.

Strangely perhaps, we have had extremely similar fixtures this season, each already having played Arsenal, Man Utd, Villa, Fulham, Bolton and West Ham. And yes, you've guessed it, we also both accumulated a whopping three points from those six opponents. And although readers of this blog will know I loathe the idea of 'playing for a draw' given the additional two points available for a win compared to only one foregone, critics of my philosophy might argue that Charlton's seven defeats this season have led to a worrying lack of confidence which Watford's four defeats have not, despite only a solitary point separating the teams at the foot of the table.

After a promising first-half against Fulham, we faded and conceded two soft-ish goals. We know Watford will be physical so Dowie may continue to prefer Diawara's sizeable presence, but Saturday is not a day for any El Karkouri funny business so don't be surprised to see Fortune return in his stead. At left-back Hreidarsson offers little offensively, but again this type of game is hardly the ideal environment to give Ashton or Youga their debut (perhaps we are paying for Curbs' failure to give them a confidence-boosting start in meaningless end-of-season games in 05/06).

In midfield, the continued presence of Hughes lends itself to all sorts of conspiracy theories and if he is the closest thing we have to a creative central midfielder, then we might have to sacrifice creativity for steel and width. My preferred midfield therefore would be Thomas, Rommedahl, Faye and Kishishev. Andy Reid's build and engine is a little comical, but Dowie clearly rates him and until someone knocks him into shape, his best role will be in the hole behind Bent, with Hasselbaink relegated to the bench. Indeed, Ambrose would be well-suited for this role too. Returning to 4-5-1 need not be seen as defensive so long as it resembles the exciting 4-5-1 of early 05/06 not the depressing one that succeeded it.

The wonders of US television schedules will ensure I will see my ninth consecutive game in full, albeit delayed, and I await with baited breath Killer's prediction for the game (KillerWatch©: £-225). I suggest a draw is the likely outcome, a result which hindsight will show was more morale-boosting than felt at the time. NY Addick predicts: Charlton 1 (Bent D), Watford 1 (Young)