Thursday, August 19, 2010

Latic Acid

With no more than two games played in League One, only three clubs can claim a 100% record and at least one of those will end tomorrow.

Led by their acidic rookie boss Paul Dickov, few expect Oldham to be competing in the upper echelons by the end of the season, but their early results command respect.

Admittedly Tranmere and Notts County are hardly amongst the division's heavyweights, but then again neither are Bournemouth or Leyton Orient.

A key difference of course is that the Addicks have had to play over a third of their season so far with ten men.

The team spirit is thus not in question, whilst Parkinson's tactics after Christian Dailly's sending off at Brisbane Road were faultless.

However the main concern will be the degree to which some of our play has been disjointed at times, even when enjoying a full complement of eleven players.

We were dominant against Bournemouth for a half-hour, but against the O's it was hard to deny the home side were the better one ironically until the red card.

It is essentially a brand new side however, and it will take time to gel.

Reassuringly after several seasons with an unbalanced midfield, we now have the outstanding Kyel Reid offering genuine left-footed width. The benefits are already obvious.

Meanwhile it is a testament to the club's pre-season work in the transfer market that the likes of Bailey, Shelvey, Burton and Sam do not appear to be missed so far.

However with suspensions already taking a mild toll, it is clear that a couple more signings before the window closes would be welcome. A nippy striker must be high on the priority list.

After winning our opening six games last season, few fans will be getting carried away. However there is an undeniable positivity around the club at last, and not before time.

Parky will be forced into at least one change, although Miguel Llera's impressive defensive cameo should ensure a start for the rather erratic Spaniard.

Chris Solly is likely to be unlucky again, with Simon Francis' height likely to be preferred with Jose Semedo suspended, and Akpo Sodje again starting on the bench.

The youngster's flexibility is a manager's dream (Curbs would have loved him), and his well-taken goal again proved what an intelligent head he has on young shoulders. He will get plenty of chances.

I thus expect us to line up as follows: Elliott, Francis, Jackson, Doherty, Llera, McCormack, Racon, Reid, Wagstaff, Abbott, Martin. Subs: Worner, Solly, Fry, Stavrinou, Sodje, Mambo, Tuna.

It seems the bookies have caught up with the 11/2 value I spotted last week on Lee Martin scoring at anytime. Those odds have already been cut in half and represent no interest.

Unlike most gamblers, I don't bet on what I think will happen but solely focus on mispriced odds.

Given that these are by definition difficult to find, it's not a strategy that lends itself easily to making charity bets on every game.

Moreover, the very nature of charity betting favours finding longer odds outcomes, rather than eking out a fiver here and a tenner there.

Miguel Llera's record of 4 goals in just 23 starts for Charlton, suggests that 12/1 on him to score at anytime represents interesting value in a game he is virtually guaranteed to start.

Given their opening two wins meanwhile, it is possible the bookies have underestimated the Latics' chances, a prospect I will choose to express through the risk that Charlton start strongly again but are hauled back for a point.

NY Addick bets £5 on Miguel Llera to score anytime (at 12/1)
NY Addick bets £5 on Charlton/Draw at HT/FT (at 16/1)


At 2:18 PM, Blogger 建枫 said...



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