Positive ID?

The media have made their mind up, the punters have made their mind up and the vast majority of the fans have made their mind up. But what if we are all being strung along by a clever ruse designed to put us all off the scent? Given Charlton's tight-lipped approach to the whole recruitment process, and as a natural contrarian, I can't help recommending opposing Dowie on Betfair at a tasty 1/10.

A couple of things don't add up. Firstly, given that Dowie didn't resign from Palace until last Monday, then Charlton will have had to have been pretty sure that Dowie was 'their man' in order to have tied up the (positive) interviews, contract and offer in the space of just four days. Moreover, if true that Dowie was keen to return up North, then one of the following must have occurred: a) he lied to Simon Jordan and the Palace fans (unlikely given he seems an honest man, and not necessary either), b) he has persuaded his family to move down South (possible I suppose, albeit unlikely to have occurred so quickly) or c) Charlton have accepted his wish to commute back and forth on a regular basis and are comfortable with it (unusual if true, given the club's natural conservatism). I may be clutching at straws slightly but at odds of 1/10, a straw can be enough to break a punter's back, as well as a camel's.

Also if the media have indeed grasped hold of a genuine leak of information, then it's surprising that some still talk about the possibility of Sammy Lee being invited into the fray. Obviously it's possible that Lee will be the new first-team coach under Dowie, but why would he leave a far stronger squad at Bolton to join a club that will likely be the 4th favourite for relegation next season? Or perhaps the media don't have the information to hand and are putting two and two together and possibly making five?

However given that an appointment has been made, then if not Dowie then who? Given that both Preston and Hull were not shy about telling the press (and their fans) about Charlton's approach, it is unlikely that the new manager (Dowie aside) is gainfully employed currently. Of the possible candidates in this position, Mick McCarthy stands out (and would be a hugely unpopular choice), whilst long-shot options would include Alberto Zaccheroni (he must be good with a name like that), Martin O'Neill (yes please) and Alex McLeish.

Assuming straw-clutching is however a mug's game, then what should be made of Iain Dowie? In the interests of full disclosure, I wrote on April 29 that: "...the most realistic and appropriate candidate may be plying his trade just a few miles down the road at Crystal Palace..." I've been surprised that a number of fans are negatively-inclined towards him, and have accused him of being a 'relegation manager' (Curbs in 1998/99 anyone?). A closer examination of his albeit short managerial record shows some solid early work at Oldham, an incredible first season at Palace followed by last-day relegation, and then last season he stabilised the team's fortunes reaching the play-offs. It is worth bearing in mind that the two other relegated sides from 2004/5 (Norwich and Southampton) fared far worse.

I've always been attracted to intelligent managers, and with a degree in rocket science (literally) Dowie is not lacking in that department. He is also renowned for producing super-fit and motivated teams, and in my view we lacked the latter last season. He is also clearly a passionate man and it'll be nice to have a manager who might just clench a fist towards the fans after a vital result. If he gets the job, he'll have my backing, and he should have the backing of all true Charlton fans too. We can only appoint managers that are available, affordable and willing to do the job. Other than perhaps Billy Davies, who else fitted the bill?

And finally, I can already see at least one advantage of having Dowie as manager. Ever since I took my now wife on our first weekend away to Bath (via Swindon away in March 1997), she has referred to Curbs as 'a very nice-looking older man.' I am relatively confident that she will be referring to Dowie in less glowing terms.