An Inconvenient Truth

With New York and London set for record temperatures today, it seemed an appropriate time to see An Inconvenient Truth the docu-film about global warming, narrated by Al Gore (former next President of the United States).

Any friends of mine reading this will know I'm no natural environmentalist (and moreover, the science of global warming is enough to baffle me) but Gore's balanced and straightforward explanation of the implications of global warming is enough to focus the mind.

I was perhaps most affected by the 'unintended consequences' of the global warming phenomenon, from tropical diseases turning up in less-than-tropical places, to Africa getting even drier (the last thing the blighted continent needs) whilst most of the rest of the globe gets wetter. The long-term prospect meanwhile of the ice caps melting and turning Luton into a seaside resort (and The Valley into a popular scuba diving spot) may be a gift we will be passing on to future generations.

Cynics may be able to dismiss the fact that ten of the hottest years on record have occurred in the last fourteen years as a statistical anomaly. More accomplished scientists than me could probably argue that warming exists, but it's nothing to be concerned about. But surely even the most ignorant layperson sweltering on the tube today must be muttering, "..this just doesn't feel right."

Anecdotal evidence of a serious problem is everywhere, and as someone who got married on 19 June 2005 (the hottest June day since 1976) I'm more aware of this than most. Whether it was the heatwave killing thousands in Europe in 2003, or Hurricane Katrina wiping out New Orleans, isn't it about time the tabloids stopped publishing photos of babies eating ice-creams or bikini-clad women, and focused on what was really going on and the terrifying implications? (ok, we can leave the bikinis for the timebeing).

Unfortunately I'm currently living in the country which is the CO2 polluter par excellence. There is some evidence that the more enlightened states (not surprisingly the blue Democratic ones) are beginning to offer the tax breaks and other incentives that encourage more energy efficiency. Even George W Bush has been dropping some hints that the US will have to lose its addiction to oil (not easy for a former Governor of Texas). Clearly the US is going to have to take the global lead on the issue, but the implications for their economy are more acute than most given their over-reliance on the car for example, making the balance between growth and the environment more difficult to attain.

I believe in the power of the market to some extent on this issue. Two decades of under-investment in boosting global supply of most commodities (including oil) has led to enormous price increases virtually across the board. With crude oil at $75 per barrel for example, a number of alternative energy options become economically viable whilst consumers are forced to change behaviour (witness the slump in SUV demand in the US, and the ongoing problems at GM and Ford). Unfortunately the powerful car and oil lobby in the US can be counted on to oppose any sort of government-led encouragement of these trends.

I'm relatively optimistic on the ability of world governments to address the problem and propose solutions (in many ways they have no choice). However in the West we may have to break away from our obsession with consumption and rapid economic growth; become a little bit more like France if you will. Perhaps the factor that thus scares me the most in the near-term is the geopolitical tensions that will doubtlessly evolve when the already-developed West tries to preach to the rapidly-developing East about its pollution and tempering its growth, when the problem was never really caused by them to begin with.