Holiday Villa

With just three points from five games and a medical team undertaking triage, looking at the fixture list has become akin to scary moments in a film - you try desperately not to look, briefly open your eyes and then immediately wish you hadn't.

Putting our dreadful record at Aston Villa aside for a moment, there shouldn't be anything particularly daunting about tomorrow's fixture. Villa Park is one of those old-fashioned grounds that retains a classic aura, but their fans don't exactly generate a terrifying atmosphere. And although Martin O'Neill has clearly given the club a boost (they remain unbeaten), their squad on paper at least, is no stronger than ours even not withstanding our injury problems. However our record there is dreadful and some of Dowie's famous positive-thinking will be required if we are somehow to bring 336 days of awayday misery to and end.

Charlton legend Derek 'killer' Hales has been putting his legendary intellect to work this season offering fans his outstanding insight into where the value lies at the bookmaker. No doubt he has been poring over statistical analyses of the data, running Monte Carlo simulations and assessing the odds within the context of a probabilistic expected value framework.

Thanks to my proprietary KillerWatch© analysis, I can confirm that Killer has suggested just one winning bet from six this season (a home win over Bolton at 6/4). Hence those that have followed his £50 charity bets will now be nursing a painful £175 loss. Where's the accountability? And if I worked for the charity, I think I might be inclined to say, "Cheers Derek mate, but I think we'll just take the cash thanks." After all £175 can buy a lot of toys for sick children.

Killer is backing a draw tomorrow, so a win is assured but for whom? The return of Hreidarsson should at least give the back four a more familiar look with Fortune presumably maintained in the centre until Traore can return. Reassuringly Holland and Hughes are doubtful, so the midfield virtually picks itself with Rommedahl and the disappointing Ambrose flanking Faye and Kishishev in the centre. Up front, Hasselbaink will doubtless retain his place (though some fans are already restless) alongside the increasingly priceless Darren Bent.

The game will be shown here in full but delayed at 2.30pm, so I will sit back and watch the Ryder Cup unfold, weather and the vagaries of US television permitting. In their infinite wisdom today at least, we are forced to watch the golf on a five hour delay 'as if' it's live meaning that Montygomerie and Harrington are only on the 6th tee despite the BBC assuring me they've already lost their match (I know Tiger Woods can psyche players out, but that's crazy). I wonder therefore how many Yanks will be watching this afternoon and thinking, "Gee, it never seems to get dark in Ireland." Meanwhile, the US players are wearing outfits that have clearly been designed by a blind person, presumably one who had the misfortune of the sun reflecting off the teeth of the American players' wives.

In defiance of Killer, New York Addick predicts: Aston Villa 2 (Angel, Moore), Charlton 0