Bush's half-term report

The US electorate yesterday delivered its half-term report to the Republican administration and it wasn't a good one. Indeed Donald Rumsfeld has already taken full responsibility for getting a consonant wrong and invading Iraq instead of Iran.

The Republicans would surely have taken an absolute hammering (as opposed to a pasting) had the economy not still been in fairly good shape, the enormous twin deficits and falling housing market aside of course. As the Tories have always known in the UK (and Labour were forced to acknowledge), the incumbent will be well-supported provided that people remain fairly optimistic about employment and their finances.

It's a testament to Bush's ineptitude that he's been able to move in a near linear fashion from a 90%+ approval rating in the aftermath of 9/11, to one below 40% today. All this of course despite doing what he has always promised....keep Americans safe from terrorism (no attack since 9/11, at least not yet). Unfortunately for America the combination of a lame-duck President and a Democratic Congress is likely to ensure political inertia until 2008.

Although last night's results will give the Democrats a valuable boost of confidence, they will be well-aware that the Presidential race will be a tighter affair not least because they will likely be up against the more moderate John McCain who retains stronger appeal amongst independents. Although Hilary Clinton remains the most likely Democratic candidate, she is a divisive character with very liberal tendencies who does not hold universal appeal. Meanwhile, the possibility of the US electing a first black President has increased thanks to the rapidly growing groundswell of support for Barack Obama, the new political superstar of the left.

Although young (45) and a political 'lightweight' (particularly in the realm of foreign policy), he perhaps represents the man most likely to be able to reunite a very divided nation, and more importantly rebuild America's damaged image in the world. Ideally he would wait until 2012 or 2016; however in 2012, if there is not already a Democratic President, he would be facing an incumbent Republican whilst in 2016 he will be 55 years old and the buzz and ambition might have faded.

Punters on Betfair have taken notice - Obama is now 13/2 to be the Democratic candidate whilst the party candidate is 4/5 to win the election, implying odds of about 12/1 to be the next President. I sense that Americans are ready for a change, even one as radical as this, so this might be a bet that even Derek 'Killer' Hales might fancy.