Outcome Bias

A cognitive bias known as 'outcome bias' focuses on the tendency to judge a decision by its eventual outcome, instead of judging it based on the information available at the time it was made.

In a footballing intepretation, there is a tendency to judge managerial prowess solely in terms of results (especially in the short-term), rather than the process that preceded those results.

Seen in this context, the decision to sack Chris Hughton might be justified if the Board concluded his relative success was unlikely to be sustainable.

'Process' would encompass all of the normal tasks that football management encompasses, eg. coaching, motivation, scouting, tactical nous etc..

Managers with a robust process will be more successful in the long-term, even if short-term results are largely at the whim of random factors out of their immediate control.

I bring this concept up because at least until today's inept defeat to Walsall, every time I've seen Charlton this season (admittedly only about 8 times) we have looked technically deficient compared to the opposition.

Yet somehow we have eked out enough points to sit 4th in the League One table with nine wins, as well as successfully negotiating five Cup ties.

Football is about winning after all, so surely the above is irrelevant as long as the outcome is positive?

Yet delve a little deeper, and it is not hard to see how narrow the margins are between success and failure; 10 of those 14 wins this season have been by just a single goal.

Our League position allied with the lack of quality I observe every time we play had been a paradox, but now I think it's solved. We have simply been lucky.

It is not for nothing that I argued in my Walsall preview that we are in a false position, because we cannot be outpassed and outplayed technically week-in and week-out without the injustices eventually catching up with us.

This is of course without even drawing attention to the gulf in resources between Charlton and the likes of Walsall.

Charlton were absolutely woeful today, but frankly not materially worse than almost every other time I've seen them this season (perhaps only Bristol Rovers notwithstanding). The only difference was the outcome.

There is absolutely no discernible game plan other than an attempt to hit the ball long, and somehow retain possession deep in the opposition half.

It's not dissimilar to the type of tactics suitable for rugby, but it is football for neanderthals. If it wasn't for Gary Doherty's defensive interventions, it could have been Brighton all over again.

I'm not a passing purist. Indeed, I would not mind if we adopted an all-out physical direct approach, but instead we fall into the grey twilight between the two and it's pitiful to watch. No wonder the crowds are falling.

The gap between the midfield and attack is so great, that you can count on one hand the number of times we retain quality possession facing the goal inside the final third.

Jose Semedo does his blocking role to good effect, but he is so woefully limited otherwise that there is no prospect of playing the ball forward through midfield.

Therry Racon is overburdened alongside him as a result, and enthusiastic as he is, I continue to conclude that he is a quite dreadful techinical footballer.

The pint-sized Walsall pair of Matt Richards and Steve Jones were made to look like Xavi and Iniesta at times, so controlled and efficient were they on the ball throughout.

It really does beg the question what the managerial trio are doing on the training ground each week? Where is the innovation, the evidence of individual improvement and the consistency (in performance, not results)?

Surely they're not setting the team up to play like this. Youngsters learn how to 'pass and move' when they're 7 years old, yet Charlton stand around like statues forcing those endless pointless balls forward played solely in hope.

In October I argued that there was no point climing aboard the 'Parky Out' bandwagon because, "..I'm far from convinced that there is any realistic alternative that is both financially viable, and where the likelihood of success (ie. promotion within two seasons say) is virtually guaranteed to be higher."

However the news of the pending takeover potentially alters both of these caveats quite substantially.

Indeed for new owners to merely observe the League One table, and conclude that all was well on the pitch would be the ultimate form of 'outcome bias' in my view.

I can merely hope for Parky's sake that they weren't at The Valley today.